JP2003233703A - Management index processing system - Google Patents

Abstract

(57) [Summary] [Problem] To provide a management index processing system capable of performing appropriate evaluation. SOLUTION: Based on a probability distribution of a ratio of a profit amount to an invested amount, an operation for obtaining a capital structure (debt / equity ratio) of a bankruptcy probability to be invested capital, the capital structure, a debt cost, and a shareholder equity cost Calculation of the capital cost ratio based on the above, calculation of the market-efficient added value from the capital cost ratio based on the after-tax business profit, and calculation of the social contribution of the business that is not directly reflected in the price or cost. An operation for obtaining the evaluated social environment added value and an operation for obtaining the future creation value by adding the market environment added value to the social environment added value are performed by a computer. [Effects] Invigorate business operations within the company,
By ascertaining withdrawal, centralizing business, normal financial management, and social harmony, companies can grow sustainably.

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

TECHNICAL FIELD The present invention relates to evaluation of an entire enterprise,
Further, the present invention relates to a processing system or a processing method that provides an index for evaluating a business department within a company or a new business.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In recent years, the business environment surrounding a company has become increasingly severe and uncertain, and it is necessary to more appropriately evaluate the business contents of the company and to conduct new business. Appropriately assessing the future potential of their business is important for answering shareholders '(investors), lenders' (creditors), and even their social mission.

[0003] A conventional management index system for evaluating a company uses the financial numerical values described in the financial statements, mainly performs only four arithmetic operations, and outputs a plurality of indexes having a specific meaning in management. It was something to do.

[0004]

At present, for example, EVA
Various evaluation methods known as (Efficiency Value Added) have been examined and actually evaluated based on the evaluation methods, but it is difficult to say that these can be appropriately evaluated for management, and more appropriate evaluation methods. Is desired.

An object of the present invention is to provide a management index processing system that enables more appropriate evaluation.

[0006] By correctly evaluating the value of the business and efficiently allocating resources within the company, the value increase for shareholders, the value safety for the lender, the risk comprehension in business development, and the probability of bankruptcy are predicted. The goal is to comprehensively analyze appraisal and consideration for society and the environment so that companies can develop in the medium to long term.

Another object of the present invention is to revitalize internal operations, identify investment / withdrawal for each business unit, centralize business, achieve normal financial management, and sustain through social harmony. It is to provide a business index processing system that can grow rapidly.

Still another object of the present invention will be described in the embodiments described later.

[0009]

[Means for Solving the Problems] The features of the present invention are: a process of analyzing past financial data to create a forecast error of operating profit after tax; a process of inputting financial data of a new business plan; By configuring by the process of evaluating the value of the investment target company from the prediction error and the financial data of the new business plan, and by performing the investment judgment by evaluating the value of the investment target company by a certain standard, Develop a company in the medium to long term by comprehensively analyzing the increase in value to shareholders, the maintainability of value to lenders, the risk of business development, the predictability of bankruptcy probability, and the consideration for society and the environment. The idea is to be able to do things.

Another feature of the present invention is a process of analyzing past financial data of all business units in the company to create a forecast error of operating profit after tax and inputting financial data of a specific business unit in the company. And a process of evaluating the value of a specific business unit within the company from the prediction error and the financial data of the specific business unit within the company, and evaluating the business value of the specific business unit within the company by a certain standard. By structuring it with the process of making business investment decisions, the business in the company is activated, the investment and withdrawal of each business unit is identified, the business is concentrated, and normal financial management is achieved. It is to provide a business index processing system that can grow sustainably through harmony.

A further feature of the present invention is that the capital structure (debt / capital ratio) of the invested capital should be calculated based on the stochastic distribution of uncertain profit with respect to the invested capital (investment amount). is there.

[0012] As a result, it is possible to allocate the funds as efficiently as in the market as in the market and to obtain the invested capital cost.

From the profit of the business, this invested capital cost is subtracted to obtain an economic added value. In the following, this is market-efficient added value (MEVA).
This is an index for corporate evaluation that considers both uncertainties and considers both shareholders and lenders.

Another feature of the present invention is to convert a non-accounting index, which is not described in the financial statements, into a monetary value to obtain an external economic added value. This will be described below in terms of socio-environmental added value (SEVA).
It is called “ental value added”, and is an index for corporate evaluation in consideration of society.

Still another feature of the present invention is to obtain an index that combines two of market-efficient added value (MEVA) and socio-environmental added value (SEVA). This is referred to below as Future Creation Value (FIV).
ation Value), which is an evaluation index that gives greater consideration to the environment surrounding the company and stakeholders than the conventional management index.

Other features of the present invention will be described in the embodiments described later.

[0017]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION The management index processing system according to the present invention is applied to an existing business unit within a company and a management index for determining whether or not to invest in a new business when the new business is established. It can be applied as a management index to judge the efficiency and activation of each business division.

FIG. 25 is a system flowchart showing an embodiment of the management index processing system according to the present invention.

In the figure, first, a debt cost, which is a borrowing interest rate when borrowing from a bank, is calculated. In this debt cost calculation process, in step 100, a target rating of the company is set. When the target rating is set in step 100, the bankruptcy probability is determined in step 102. When the bankruptcy probability is determined in this step 102, in step 104,
Debt cost Rd (borrowing interest rate when borrowing from a bank)
Make a decision. This target rating sets a target rating of the company, and this rating is based on the table shown in FIG. The rating table shown in FIG. 26 is
"AAA", "AA", "A", "BBB", etc.,
The bankruptcy rate (probability of bankruptcy) and debt cost (borrowing interest rate from banks) are set according to this rating. That is,
The debt cost is the cost (interest rate) that must be paid when borrowing from a bank (liability). Therefore, a bankruptcy rate of "AAA" is "0.0".
The debt cost, which is the interest rate borrowed from the bank, is set to "1.5%". Similarly, a bank with a rating of "A" has a bankruptcy rate of "0.1%" and a debt cost, which is a borrowing rate from a bank, of "1.7%". Therefore, when the target rating of the company is set in step 100, the bankruptcy probability in step 102 is determined and the debt cost in step 104 is set.
In this way, the debt cost is, for example, "0.1%
Is decided.

Next, the calculation processing of the cost of shareholders' equity is performed.
This cost of shareholders' equity is the cost incurred with respect to shareholders' equity (shareholders' investment in stock). In step 106, the share capital cost calculation process calculates the share capital cost based on the fluctuation of the stock price. As shown in FIG. 27, the calculation of the cost of equity capital based on the fluctuation of the stock price takes the return rate (Rmt) of the comprehensive stock index of the market (for example, TSE stock index) on the horizontal axis and the company's ( Or, in the case of unlisted companies, the rate of return (Ri
t), take dozens of periods daily, weekly, monthly,
β (the slope of the straight line in FIG. 27) is calculated. That is, Rit = α + β from the past data of the rate of return (Rit) of the stock price of the company itself (or the other company in the same industry in the case of unlisted company) and the rate of return (Rmt) of the comprehensive stock index of the market (for example, TSE stock index). Β (inclination of the straight line in FIG. 27) is calculated using the equation × Rmt + εit.
When the value of β is calculated in step 106, the cost of shareholders' equity is calculated in step 108. As shown in FIG. 28, the calculation of the cost of equity capital takes the return rate (Rmt) of the comprehensive stock index of the market (for example, TSE stock index) on the horizontal axis and the cost of equity (Re) on the vertical axis.
It is calculated from the figure. In FIG. 28, Rf is a risk-free interest rate (currently 2%). Thus, using the capital asset price model (CAPM), the risk-free interest rate (Rf) of government bonds and the return rate (R
From m), the cost of shareholders' equity (Re) is calculated using the formula Re = Rf + β × (Rm−Rf). In this way, the cost of equity (Re) is, for example, 8%
Is calculated.

Next, the debt / capital ratio calculation process is performed.
In this debt / capital ratio calculation process, in step 110, the debt / capital ratio is calculated from the risk. Calculation of the debt / capital ratio from this risk includes the RVM method, the historical method, and the business simulation method in which the probability distribution function of the ROI of the relevant business is selected from the matrix.

First, the calculation of the debt / capital ratio using the RVM method for selecting the probability distribution function of the ROI of the business from the matrix will be described in detail with reference to FIGS.

FIG. 1 is a processing flowchart showing an embodiment for obtaining a management index for determining whether or not to invest in a new business when the management index processing system according to the present invention is started. Has been done.

In the figure, A is a processing flowchart for analyzing past data to create a database, B is a processing flowchart for inputting a business plan, C is a processing flowchart for evaluating the value of an investment target company, and D is for processing. In the processing flowchart for executing investment determination, these processing flowcharts are processed by an arithmetic processing unit (not shown).

The process flow chart A for analyzing past data and creating a database is as follows. In step 10, a financial database for accumulating past financial data is constructed, and based on this financial database, step 11
In step 1, NOPAT (operating profit after tax) is calculated. When NOPAT (operating profit after tax) is calculated in step 11, step 12
In, a NOPAT database is constructed, and in step 13, a NOPAT is predicted using regression analysis based on this NOPAT database. From NOPAT predicted in this step 13, step 14
At, the prediction error δ is calculated. The prediction error δ calculated in step 14 is classified by the risk of the characteristic factor in step 15. This step 15
When the prediction error δ is classified by the risk of the characteristic factor in,
In step 16, an error histogram is created and stored in the error histogram database.

In the processing flowchart C for evaluating the value of the investment target company, the NOPAT prediction value is calculated in step 20, and the NOPAT prediction is calculated in step 21 based on the error histogram database created and stored in step 16. The NOPAT distribution is calculated by applying an error histogram centered on the value. Then, in step 22, the capital cost is subtracted to calculate the economic profit distribution. When the economic cost distribution is calculated by subtracting the capital cost in this step 22, the risk adjusted return rate is calculated in step 23.

When the arithmetic processing unit is started up, a project analysis message screen as shown in FIG. 2 is displayed on the display. In the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 2, A is an error database creation processing unit, B is a business plan input unit, C is a business value evaluation unit, and D is a business value evaluation unit.
Is an investment judgment unit. These are the error database creation processing unit A in the processing flow chart A shown in FIG. 1, and the business plan input unit B in the processing flow chart B shown in FIG.
The business value evaluation section C corresponds to the processing flowchart C shown in FIG. 1, and the investment determination section D corresponds to the processing flowchart D shown in FIG.

When the error database creation processing section A is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 2, a processing flowchart A for analyzing the past data and creating a database shown in FIG. 1 is executed. . That is, when the error database creation processing section A is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 2, the error database creation message screen as shown in FIG. 3 is displayed. This Figure 3
The error database creation message screen as shown in is a message screen of the detailed processing flow of the error database creation processing unit A in the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. In the message screen shown in FIG. 3, a NOPAT / invested capital calculation process 1, a regression analysis process 2, and a risk matrix creation process 3 are performed. This NOPAT (operating profit after tax) is given by the following formula.

NOPAT = (operating income + non-operating income-non-operating expenses + total interest payments / discount charges) x (1-0.41)
8) Also, the invested capital is (short-term debt + long-term debt + capital)
Is. Then, the NOPAT and the invested capital may be corrected by using other financial data.

When the error database creation processing section A is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 2, the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 is displayed, and the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 is displayed. In the message screen, NOPA
If you select (click) T / Invested capital calculation process 1,
For the specified period (data collection period), the past NOPAT / invested capital of all companies is calculated.

When NOPAT / Invested capital calculation processing 1 on the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 is selected (clicked) and past NOPAT / Invested capital of all companies is calculated, it is shown in FIG. Select (click) the regression analysis process 2 on the error database creation message screen. When the regression analysis process 2 on the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 is selected (clicked), the regression analysis process 2 is performed. The regression analysis process 2 of the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 creates a prediction model of NOPAT / invested capital, and is processed as shown in FIG. That is, in FIG. 4, in the regression analysis, the horizontal axis is the fiscal year and the vertical axis is the NOPA of each fiscal year.
T / Invested capital is shown. This regression analysis uses the data for the past three years, including the most recent data year (base year), to predict NOPAT / invested capital for the year following the base year. In FIG. 4, regarding NOPAT / Invested capital data, NOPAT / Invested capital in the base year is En, and NOPAT / Invested capital one year before the base year (Base year-1) is En.
-1, when two years before the base year (base year -2) NOPAT / invested capital is En -2, these three NOPs
Using AT / Invested capital En, En-1, En-2, NOPAT / Invested capital E in the year following the base year (base year +1)
Predict n + 1. In this prediction, regression parameters a0, a1, a2, and a3 obtained by regression analysis are obtained from NOPAT / invested capital for the past three years, and this parameter is obtained based on the formula shown in FIG.
This parameter is NOPAT /
The difference between the invested capital En + 1 and the measured value E0 is the prediction error δ. Then, the regression parameters a0, a1, a2,
a3 is displayed in each column.

The regression parameters a0, a1, a2, a
Period specified by all companies using 3 (data collection period)
The histogram of FIG. 5 is obtained by obtaining the prediction error δ of NOPAT / capital invested for each year and taking the frequency distribution of all the NOPAT / capital invested prediction errors δ. When the histogram of the prediction error δ in FIG. 5 is created, the regression analysis process 2 on the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 ends. When the regression analysis process 2 of the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 is completed, the risk matrix creation process 3 of the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 is selected (clicked) to create this risk matrix. To do. This risk matrix is created by using the histogram of the prediction error δ in FIG. 5 as a summary of the prediction errors δ of all industries and companies, and is not a statistical one. It is divided into a matrix. Therefore, the histogram of the prediction error δ divides the three specific factors into three groups according to the large, medium, and small risks.
It is possible to have 27 matrixed data. In addition, in this Embodiment, although it is supposed to classify into large, medium, and small, it is supposed to be classified into three, but it is also possible to classify into five such as extra large, large medium small, and extra small. Further, although the characteristic factors are also classified into three, they may be classified into two or four.

In order to have objectivity as data, it is suitable that each element of the matrix has a predicted value of about 1000. For example, if the number of companies is 3,500, and the prediction error δ for the past 5 years is obtained, the total number of companies is 3
The number of prediction error δ data of 500 companies is 17500, and when divided into three specific factors, the number of predicted values of each element is 648 per matrix.

Therefore, the prediction error δ created in FIG.
Create a matrix of specific factors from the histogram of. This particular factor is aggregated by asset size, profitability and industry. The asset size is classified by assets of each company, profitability is specified by the average value of NOPAT / invested capital in the past several years, and the industry is determined by the business content of each company.

First, a risk matrix based on asset size is created. In creating a risk matrix based on this asset size, from the histogram of the prediction error δ in Fig. 5, all companies are arranged from the smallest to the largest asset size on the horizontal axis, and the prediction error δ data for each company is listed. The vertical axis shows the number of data for each asset size. There is a method of dividing the asset size of this company, for example, by dividing the capital by 100 million yen. The number of data on the vertical axis is calculated for each asset size.

In creating the risk matrix based on the asset size, as shown in FIG. 6, all companies are arranged in the asset size on the horizontal axis, and the vertical axis indicates the number of prediction error δ data corresponding to the asset size. As shown in FIG. 6, NOPAT /
The prediction error of the invested capital is classified by the characteristic factor (asset size) to create a histogram of each element of the risk matrix, and this histogram is divided into large, medium and small, but in order to make the evaluation objective, the data of each block So that the numbers are the same, that is, N1, N2, N3 in FIG. 6 are, for example, N1 = N2 = N3 (they are not exactly separated, so they are practically equal). Thus, the magnitudes X1 and X2 of the asset scale are obtained, and the prediction error δ data is divided into three. Actually, X1 is displayed on the display screen of FIG.
By moving the X and X2 axes with the cursor to the left and right in the figure, N1, N2, N3 displayed on the upper display screen of FIG.
The number of data changes corresponding to the X1 axis and the X2 axis, and can be easily set by moving the X1 axis and the X2 axis to the left and right with a cursor.

In FIG. 6, when the creation of the risk matrix based on the asset size is completed, the risk matrix based on the profitability is created next. In creating the risk matrix based on this profitability, from the histogram of the prediction error δ in FIG. 5, all companies are arranged from the one with low profitability to the one with high profitability, and the horizontal axis shows the prediction error δ data of each company. The vertical axis shows the number of data for each asset size. The number of data on the vertical axis is counted for each profitability.

In creating the risk matrix based on this profitability, as shown in FIG. 7, all companies are arranged in profitability order on the horizontal axis, and the number of prediction error δ data corresponding to profitability is on the vertical axis. As shown in FIG. 7, the prediction error of NOPAT / invested capital is classified by a characteristic factor (profitability) to create a histogram, and this histogram is divided into large, medium, and small. The number of blocks of data is the same, that is, N1 = N2 = in FIG.
The profitability magnitudes X1 and X2 are calculated so as to be N3, and the prediction error δ data is divided into three. Actually, by moving the X1 axis and the X2 axis on the display screen of FIG. 7 left and right with the cursor, N1 and N displayed on the upper display screen of FIG.
The numbers in 2 and N3 correspond to the X1 axis and the X2 axis, and the number of data changes, and the X1 axis and the X2 axis can be easily set by moving them left and right with the cursor.

In FIG. 7, when the creation of the risk matrix based on profitability is completed, next, the risk matrix according to the type of industry is created. In creating the risk matrix by industry, the prediction error δ in Fig. 5
From the histogram, all industries of all companies are classified by industry, each industry is plotted on the horizontal axis, the average error is taken for each industry, and the average error is plotted on the vertical axis.

As shown in FIG. 8, the creation of the risk matrix based on the type of industry takes the types of industries of all companies on the horizontal axis, and the average error of the prediction error δ data for each type of industry on the vertical axis. As shown in FIG. 8, the prediction error δ of NOPAT / invested capital is classified by a characteristic factor (industry risk) to create a histogram, and this histogram is divided into large, medium, and small, but in order to have objectivity of evaluation, X1 and X2 are calculated so that the number of data of the prediction error δ of each block is the same, that is, N1 = N2 = N3 in FIG. 8, and the prediction error δ data is divided into three. Actually, FIG.
The X1 axis and the X2 axis are moved up and down in the figure on the display screen of
Numerical values in 1, N2, N3 change depending on the position of the X1 axis and X2 axis, and the number of data changes. It can be easily set by moving the X1 axis and X2 axis left and right with the cursor. There is.

As described above, the number of data of the prediction error δ is classified according to the three factors, and the data is further divided so that the number of the data of the prediction error δ becomes 1/3, whereby the data is divided into substantially equal parts. As shown in FIG. 9, when the asset size “small”, profitability “medium”, and industry risk (average error) “medium” are selected (clicked) in the matrix thus classified, the prediction error that meets this condition is selected. A frequency distribution of δ is obtained.

This completes the error database creation flow of FIG. That is, the processing up to FIG.
Unless the processing as shown in FIG. 3 is performed, the error database creation message screen as shown in FIG. 3 is displayed. This Figure 3
When "Return" is selected (clicked) on the error database creation message screen of, the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 2 is displayed.

Next, a future business plan for which a business plan is desired is entered. That is, the business plan input section B is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. When the business plan input section B is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 2, the process flowchart B shown in FIG. 1 for inputting a future business plan is executed. That is, when the business plan input section B is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 2, the business plan input message screen of the balance sheet as shown in FIG. 10 is displayed. The business plan input message screen of the balance sheet as shown in FIG. 10 is a message screen of the detailed processing flow of the business plan input section B in the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. In the business plan input message screen of the balance sheet shown in FIG. 10, the business plan for the business to be evaluated is entered, but the balance sheet in the business plan is, for example, 5 from the start-up year of the new business. Enter the year's worth (preferably 5 to 10 years or more in terms of data accuracy).

On the business plan input message screen of the balance sheet as shown in FIG. 10, the balance sheet has year (accounting year), short-term debt, long-term debt, capital and invested capital. When the input of the balance sheet shown in FIG. 10 is completed, the business plan input message screen of the income statement as shown in FIG. 11 is displayed. On the income statement business plan input message screen shown in FIG. 11, the income statement is input from the business plan for the business to be evaluated. On the business plan input message screen of the income statement shown in FIG. 11, the income statement shows annual (accounting year), operating income (before tax), interest expense (interest on debt), tax rate, and net income. is there.

When the input of the income statement is completed on the income statement business plan input message screen shown in FIG. 11, the business plan input message screen shown in FIG. 12 is displayed. In the business plan input message screen shown in FIG. 12, a new business type code, target ROE (net profit / shareholders' equity, target value of the investing company) in the business plan for the business to be evaluated. %), Rating (rating of the company that is the main investor of the investment. For example, AA, A, BBB, etc.), cost of capital (of the company that is the main investor of the investment.%), Borrowing interest rate (investment to invest) Of the company that is the subject of. When the input of the business plan input message screen as shown in FIG. 12 is completed, when "Return" is selected (clicked) on the business plan input message screen shown in FIG. 12, the business plan input process is completed, and as shown in FIG. The project analysis message screen is displayed.

Next, a business value evaluation process for a future business plan for which a business plan is desired is made. That is, the business value evaluation section C is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. When the business value evaluation section C is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 2, the processing flowchart C for evaluating the value of the investment target company shown in FIG. 1 is executed. That is, when the business value evaluation section C is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 2, the display menu message screen as shown in FIG. 13 is displayed. The display menu message screen shown in FIG. 13 shows "NOPAT distribution", "economic profit distribution", and "evaluation year", and either "NOPAT distribution" or "economic profit distribution" is displayed. Select (click)
As the “evaluation year”, the business plan year (2002, etc.) in which the user wants to know the business value evaluation is input.

Here, the economic profit is the economic profit = NOPAT (operating profit after tax) -WACC.
・ It is decided by the formula C. Where C is invested capital, WACC is weighted average cost of capital, and WACC · C is WACC · C = {(economic capital / capital invested) x capital cost + (1-economic capital / capital invested) x borrowing interest rate x (1-tax rate) x ((shareholders' equity +
Borrowing).

Now, when selecting (clicking) "NOPAT distribution" on the display menu message screen as shown in FIG. 13, inputting "evaluation year", and selecting (clicking) "display", NOPAT / drop Based on the forecast error δ data stored in the capital forecast error database,
A distribution curve as shown in FIG. 14 is obtained. The distribution curve as shown in FIG. 14 is selected from the error histograms stored in the 27 NOPAT / Invested capital prediction error database based on the asset size, profitability and industry entered on the screen, and next to the histogram. The distribution is obtained by multiplying the axis by the invested capital input on the screen and superimposing the position of 0 in the histogram on the position of the NOPAT predicted value. The “asset size” of the distribution curve as shown in FIG. 14 is the input of the balance sheet shown in FIG. 10, and the “profitability” of the distribution curve as shown in FIG. 14 is the income statement as shown in FIG. 11. By inputting, the "industry" of the distribution curve as shown in FIG. 14 is specified by the input of the new business type code on the business plan input message screen as shown in FIG. Therefore, by selecting (clicking) "NOPAT distribution" on the display menu message screen as shown in FIG. 13 and inputting "evaluation year",
A distribution curve as shown in is obtained.

In the distribution curve as shown in FIG. 14, the horizontal axis represents NOPAT and the vertical axis represents probability density. And
The area surrounded by the horizontal axis and the distribution curve is set to "1", and the area surrounded by the vertical axis at the point p, the horizontal axis, and the distribution curve in the figure indicates the default rate (default rate). ing. This default rate corresponds to the rating entered on the business plan input message screen shown in FIG. 12, and this rating corresponds to the default rate.
It is stored as a table in the memory of the arithmetic processing unit, and the default rate (default rate) is determined according to the rating. From the zero point to the p point of this distribution curve is the economic capital (indicating how much capital a new business needs to prepare). When the distribution curve as shown in FIG. 14 is obtained and "Return" is selected (clicked) on the business value evaluation message screen shown in FIG. 14, the process of the business value evaluation part C on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. (Processing flow chart C for evaluating the value of the investment target company shown in FIG. 1) ends, and the screen returns to the project analysis message screen shown in FIG.

Next, an investment judgment process for a future business plan for which a business plan is desired is made. That is, the investment judgment section D is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. When the investment determination section D is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 2, the processing flowchart D for executing the investment determination shown in FIG. 1 is executed. That is, FIG.
In the project analysis message screen shown in,
When the investment judgment section D is selected (clicked), a display menu message screen as shown in FIG. 15 is displayed. The display menu message screen shown in FIG. 15 shows “economic profit distribution”, “economic capital”, “risk-adjusted return rate”, and “investment judgment”, and any one of these can be selected ( You can click). This risk-adjusted rate of return is calculated by (economic profit / economic capital).

Here, when "economic profit distribution" is selected (clicked) on the display menu message screen as shown in FIG. 15, an investment judgment message screen for economic profit distribution as shown in FIG. 16 is displayed. In FIG. 16, 20
It can be seen that in 2001, it was (-), but in 2001 it turned to (+). When the economic profit distribution is known in this way, if "Return" is selected (clicked) on the investment judgment message screen of the economic profit distribution shown in FIG.
Returning to the display menu message screen as shown in, selecting (clicking) "economic capital" here displays the investment determination message screen for economic capital as shown in FIG. In FIG. 17, the economic capital characteristics and the shareholders' equity characteristics displayed for reference are shown.

When "Return" is selected (clicked) on the investment determination message screen of the economic capital shown in FIG. 17, the display menu message screen as shown in FIG. 15 is returned, where "Risk adjusted return rate" is displayed. 18 is selected (clicked), a risk adjusted return rate investment determination message screen as shown in FIG. 18 is displayed. In FIG. 18, the risk-adjusted return rate curve and the ROE curve are compared and displayed. In FIG. 18, the target ROE
For the curve, the risk-adjusted rate of return curve is shown to be achievable beyond 2003.

When "Return" is selected (clicked) on the risk-adjusted return rate investment judgment message screen shown in FIG. 18, the display menu message screen as shown in FIG. Is selected (clicked), a comprehensive investment judgment message screen as shown in FIG. 19 is displayed. In making this "investment decision," the contribution of the company to society is taken into consideration as well as performance. The contribution of this company to society is the effect that the company has on society and the environment, and is not reflected in prices or costs, that is, "external economy" or "external diseconomy" in economics,
Enter a non-accounting index and convert the amount on the system. Also,
The portion of the stock such as intangible assets is converted into the amount of the flow in consideration of the number of years that the effect continues. In addition, there are environmental management, environmentally friendly product manufacturing, environmentally friendly production activities, and social interaction.

Convert the quantitative items of publicly available information in environmental accounting such as CO2 emissions such as CO2 emission, industrial waste, energy saving and recycling in the Ministry of the Environment "Environmental Performance Index of Businesses-2000 Edition" into monetary amount. . Not only that, it also includes contributions to society through free patents, shareware, etc.

As described above, not only the "economic benefit" but also the "social and environmental benefit" is taken into consideration, and management is performed with appropriate weighting. Therefore, the total business profit of a company is “economic profit” + ε × “social environmental profit”. Here, ε is a coefficient that is determined by the management and reflected in the overall business profit, taking into consideration the social situation and the intentions of shareholders so that sustainable growth can be achieved in harmony with society. .

In consideration of such a situation, in FIG. 19, the contents of the examination are as follows: “Financial profit is positive and shareholder value increases from 2002. Risk adjusted return rate> ROE from 2004. Shareholders' equity "The amount is appropriate." Is displayed, and the conclusion is that "it is judged as investment grade. Withdrawal if economic profit <0 for several consecutive years." Based on this judgment, it can be judged whether or not to invest.

FIG. 20 is a processing flowchart showing an embodiment of the management index processing system according to the present invention for evaluating the business value of a business unit in a company and obtaining a management index for judging whether or not a business investment should be made. It is shown.

In the figure, E is a processing flowchart for analyzing financial data of all business units in the past to create a database, F is a processing flow chart for inputting the business content of a specific business unit, and G is a business unit. Is a processing flowchart for evaluating the business value of the above, H is a processing flowchart for making a business investment determination, and these processing flowcharts are processed by an arithmetic processing unit (not shown).

Process Flowchart E for Analyzing Financial Data of All Business Units in the Past Company and Creating a Database
Builds a financial database that accumulates financial data for each business unit in the company in step 30, and based on this financial database, in step 31,
Calculation processing of NOPAT (operating profit after tax) is performed.
In this step 31, when NOPAT (operating profit after tax) is calculated, in step 32,
A NOPAT database is built and, in step 33, regression analysis is used to predict NOPAT based on this NOPAT database. In step 34, the prediction error δ is calculated from the NOPAT predicted in step 33. The prediction error δ calculated in step 14 is classified by the risk of the characteristic factor in step 35. When the prediction error δ is classified by the risk of the characteristic factor in this step 35, step 36
At, an error histogram is created and stored in the error histogram database.

In the process flow chart G for carrying out the business investment judgment, in step 40, the predicted value of NOPAT is calculated, and in step 41, the predicted value of NOPAT is calculated based on the error histogram database created and stored in step 36. The NOPAT distribution is calculated by applying the error histogram to the center. Then, in step 42, the cost of capital is subtracted to calculate the economic profit distribution. When the economic cost distribution is calculated by subtracting the capital cost in this step 42, the risk adjusted return rate is calculated in step 43.

When the arithmetic processing unit is started up, a project analysis message screen as shown in FIG. 21 is displayed on the display. In the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21, E is the error database creation processing unit, F is the business content input unit of the business unit, G is the business value evaluation unit, and H is the business investment judgment unit. In the process flowchart E in which the database creation processing unit E analyzes the financial data of all the business units in the past company shown in FIG. 20 and creates a database, the business content input unit F of the business unit is specified in FIG. In the process flowchart F for inputting the business content of the business unit, in the process flowchart G for evaluating the business value of the business unit shown in FIG. 20 by the business value evaluation unit G, the business investment judgment unit H for the business investment shown in FIG. Each corresponds to a processing flowchart H for making a determination.

When the error database creation processing section E is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21, a processing flow chart E shown in FIG. 20 for analyzing past data and creating a database is executed. . That is, when the error database creation processing section E is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21, the error database creation message screen as shown in FIG. 3 is displayed. The error database creation message screen as shown in FIG. 3 is a message screen of the detailed processing flow of the error database creation processing unit E in the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. In the message screen shown in FIG. 3, a NOPAT / invested capital calculation process 1, a regression analysis process 2, and a risk matrix creation process 3 are performed. This NOPAT
(Operating income after tax) is given by the following formula.

NOPAT = (operating income + non-operating income-non-operating expenses + total interest payments / discounts) x (1-0.41)
8) Also, the invested capital is (short-term debt + long-term debt + capital)
Is. Then, the NOPAT and the invested capital may be corrected by using other financial data.

On the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21, the error database creation processing unit E
When (click) is selected, the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 is displayed. In the error database creation message screen shown in FIG.
When the AT / invested capital calculation process 1 is selected (clicked), NOPAT / invested capital in each past business unit in the company is calculated for a designated period (data collection period).

When NOPAT / Invested capital calculation processing 1 on the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 is selected (clicked) and past NOPAT / Invested capital of all companies is calculated, it is shown in FIG. Select (click) the regression analysis process 2 on the error database creation message screen. When the regression analysis process 2 on the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 is selected (clicked), the regression analysis process 2 is performed. The regression analysis process 2 of the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 creates a prediction model of NOPAT / invested capital, and is processed as shown in FIG. That is, in FIG. 4, in the regression analysis, the horizontal axis is the fiscal year and the vertical axis is the NOPA of each fiscal year.
T / Invested capital is shown. This regression analysis uses the data for the past three years, including the most recent data year (base year), to predict NOPAT / invested capital for the year following the base year. In FIG. 4, regarding NOPAT / Invested capital data, NOPAT / Invested capital in the base year is En, and NOPAT / Invested capital one year before the base year (Base year-1) is En.
-1, when two years before the base year (base year -2) NOPAT / invested capital is En -2, these three NOPs
Using AT / Invested capital En, En-1, En-2, NOPAT / Invested capital E in the year following the base year (base year +1)
Predict n + 1. In this prediction, regression parameters a0, a1, a2, and a3 obtained by regression analysis are obtained from NOPAT / invested capital for the past three years, and this parameter is obtained based on the formula shown in FIG.
This parameter is the predicted NOPA according to FIG.
The difference between T / the invested capital En + 1 and the measured value E0 is the prediction error δ. This regression parameter a0, a1, a2, a3
Is displayed in the column.

This regression parameter a0, a1, a2, a
Figure 3 is used to calculate the prediction error δ of NOPAT / Invested capital for each fiscal year of the period specified by the company (data collection period), and the figure showing the frequency distribution of all NOPAT / Predicted error δ of invested capital 5 is a histogram of 5. When the histogram of the prediction error δ of FIG. 5 is created,
The regression analysis process 2 on the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. When the regression analysis process 2 of the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 is completed, the risk matrix creation process 3 of the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 is selected (clicked) to create this risk matrix. To do. This risk matrix is created by using the histogram of the prediction error δ in FIG. 5 as a summary of the prediction errors δ of all industries and companies, and is not a statistical one. It is divided into a matrix. Therefore, the histogram of the prediction error δ divides the three specific factors into three groups according to the large, medium, and small risks.
It is possible to have 27 matrixed data. In addition, in this Embodiment, although it is supposed to classify into large, medium, and small, it is supposed to be classified into three, but it is also possible to classify into five such as extra large, large medium small, and extra small. Further, although the characteristic factors are also classified into three, they may be classified into two or four.

Therefore, the prediction error δ created in FIG.
Create a matrix of specific factors from the histogram of. This particular factor is aggregated by asset size, profitability, and business unit. The asset size is the share capital allocated to each business division of the company and the borrowings. Profitability is specified by the average value of NOPAT / Invested capital for each business division in the past several years. It is decided by each independent work content.

First, a risk matrix based on asset size is created. In creating the risk matrix based on this asset size, from the histogram of the prediction error δ in Fig. 5, all business units within the company are arranged on the horizontal axis from the smallest to the largest asset size of the company, and the prediction error of each business unit is shown. δ
Data is put and the vertical axis shows the number of data for each asset size. As a method of dividing the asset size of each business unit, for example, there is a method of dividing the business unit into asset units assigned to each business unit. The number of data on the vertical axis is calculated for each asset size.

As shown in FIG. 6, the risk matrix based on the asset size is created by arranging all business units in the asset size order on the abscissa and the number of prediction error δ data corresponding to the asset size on the ordinate. As shown in FIG. 6, NOPAT
/ The prediction error of invested capital is classified by a characteristic factor (scale of invested capital) to create a histogram of each element of the risk matrix, and this histogram is divided into large, medium, and small, but each block is given in order to have objectivity of evaluation. So that the number of data is the same, that is, N1, N2, and N3 in FIG.
For example, the magnitudes X1 and X2 of the asset scale are calculated so that N1 = N2 = N3 (actually, since they cannot be accurately divided, they are substantially equal), and the prediction error δ data is divided into three. To do. Actually, X is displayed on the display screen of FIG.
By moving the 1st axis and the 2nd axis with the cursor to the left and right of the figure, N1, N2, N3 displayed on the upper display screen of FIG.
The number of data changes corresponding to the X1 axis and the X2 axis, and can be easily set by moving the X1 axis and the X2 axis to the left and right with a cursor.

In FIG. 6, when the risk matrix based on the asset size is completed, next, the risk matrix based on the profitability is created. In creating the risk matrix based on this profitability, from the histogram of the prediction error δ in Fig. 5, all business units are arranged from the one with low profitability to the one with high profitability, and the horizontal axis shows the prediction error δ data for each business unit. And put the number of data for each asset size on the vertical axis. The number of data on the vertical axis is counted for each profitability.

In creating the risk matrix based on this profitability, as shown in FIG. 7, all the business units are arranged in profitability order on the horizontal axis, and the number of prediction error δ data corresponding to profitability is on the vertical axis. As shown in FIG. 7, the prediction error of NOPAT / invested capital is classified by a characteristic factor (profitability) to create a histogram, and this histogram is divided into large, medium, and small. The number of data in the blocks is the same, that is, N1 = N2 in FIG.
The profitability magnitudes X1 and X2 are calculated so that = N3,
The prediction error δ data is divided into three. Actually, by moving the X1 axis and the X2 axis on the display screen of FIG. 7 left and right with the cursor, N1 and N displayed on the upper display screen of FIG.
The numbers in 2 and N3 correspond to the X1 axis and the X2 axis, and the number of data changes, and the X1 axis and the X2 axis can be easily set by moving them left and right with the cursor.

In FIG. 7, when the creation of the risk matrix based on profitability is completed, next, the risk matrix is created for each business unit. In creating the risk matrix for each business unit, all business units within the company are classified by business unit from the histogram of the prediction error δ in FIG. 5, and each business unit is plotted on the horizontal axis to show the average error for each business unit. Therefore, the average error is plotted on the vertical axis.

As shown in FIG. 22, the creation of the risk matrix based on each business unit takes the business units in the company side by side on the horizontal axis and the average error of the prediction error δ data for each business unit on the vertical axis. ing. As shown in FIG. 22, NOP
AT / Invested capital prediction error δ is a characteristic factor (industry risk)
It is a reason to make a histogram by classifying with, and divide this histogram into large, medium, and small, but in order to have objectivity of evaluation,
X1 and X2 are calculated so that the number of pieces of prediction error δ in each block is the same, that is, N1 = N2 = N3 in FIG. 22, and the prediction error δ data is divided into three. Actually, by moving the X1 axis and the X2 axis on the display screen of FIG. 22 up and down with the cursor, the numerical values in N1, N2, and N3 displayed on the upper display screen of FIG.
The number of data changes depending on the position of the two axes.
The axis and X2 axis can be easily set by moving the cursor left and right.

As described above, the number of data of the prediction error δ is classified according to the three factors, and further divided so that the number of data of the prediction error δ becomes 1/3, whereby the data are divided into substantially equal parts. As shown in FIG. 9, when the asset size “small”, profitability “medium”, and business unit risk (average error) “medium” are selected (clicked) in the matrix thus classified,
A frequency distribution of the prediction error δ that meets this condition can be obtained.

This completes the error database creation flow of FIG. That is, the processing up to FIG. 22 is performed,
Unless the process shown in FIG. 23 is performed, the error database creation message screen shown in FIG. 3 is displayed. When "Return" is selected (clicked) on the error database creation message screen of FIG. 3, the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21 is displayed.

Next, the business content of a specific business division is input. That is, on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21, the business content input section F of the business department is selected (clicked). When the business content input section F of the business unit is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21, the processing flowchart F for inputting the business content of the specific business unit shown in FIG. 20 is executed.
That is, when the business content input section F of the business unit is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21, the business content input message screen of the specific business unit of the balance sheet as shown in FIG. 10 is displayed. . The business content input message screen of the specific business unit of the balance sheet as shown in FIG. 10 is a message screen of the detailed processing flow of the business content input unit F of the business unit in the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. In the business content input message screen of the specific business division of the balance sheet shown in FIG. 10, the business content of the business division for the business division to be evaluated is input.

On the business plan input message screen of the balance sheet as shown in FIG. 10, the balance sheet has annual (accounting year), short-term debt, long-term debt, capital and invested capital. When the input of the balance sheet shown in FIG. 10 is completed, the business content input message screen of the business division of the income statement as shown in FIG. 11 is displayed. In the business content input message screen of the business unit of the income statement shown in FIG. 11, the income statement is input from the business content of the business unit for the business unit to be evaluated. In the business content input message screen of the business unit of the income statement shown in FIG. 11,
The income statement includes annual (accounting year), operating profit (before tax), interest expense (interest on loans), tax rate, and net profit.

When the input of the income statement is completed on the business content input message screen of the business division of the income statement shown in FIG. 11, the business content input message screen of the business division as shown in FIG. 24 is displayed. In the business content input message screen of the business department shown in FIG. 24, the business unit code, among the business content of the business unit for the business to be evaluated,
Target ROE (net income / shareholders' equity, target value of the company that is the main investor to invest.%), Rating (rating of the company that is the main investor to invest. For example, AA, A, BBB, etc.),
Capital cost (of the company that is the main investor to invest.
%), And the borrowing interest rate (of the company that is the main investor of the investment.%). When the input of the business content input message screen of the business unit as shown in FIG.
When "Return" is selected (clicked) on the business content input message screen of the business unit shown in FIG. 4, the business content input processing of the business unit is completed, and the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21 is displayed.

Next, a business value evaluation process for the business content of a specific business department is performed. That is, the business value evaluation section G is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. When the business value evaluation section G is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21, the processing flowchart C shown in FIG. 20 for evaluating the value of the investment target company is executed. That is, when the business value evaluation section G is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21, a display menu message screen as shown in FIG. 13 is displayed. The display menu message screen shown in FIG. 13 shows "NOPAT distribution", "economic profit distribution", and "evaluation year", and either "NOPAT distribution" or "economic profit distribution" is displayed. Select (click)
As the “evaluation year”, the business plan year (2002, etc.) in which the user wants to know the business value evaluation is input.

Here, the economic profit is the economic profit = NOPAT (operating profit after tax) -WACC.
・ It is decided by the formula C. Where C is invested capital, WACC is weighted average cost of capital, and WACC · C is WACC · C = {(economic capital / capital invested) x capital cost + (1-economic capital / capital invested) x borrowing interest rate x (1-tax rate) x ((shareholders' equity +
Borrowing).

Now, when "NOPAT distribution" is selected (clicked) on the display menu message screen as shown in FIG. 13, the "evaluation year" is input, and "display" is selected (clicked), the screen shown in FIG. A distribution curve as shown is obtained. The distribution curve as shown in FIG. 14 is obtained by specifying the asset size, profitability, and business division. This FIG.
The "asset size" of the distribution curve as shown in Fig. 10 is the input of the balance sheet shown in Fig. 10, and the "profitability" of the distribution curve as shown in Fig. 14 is the input of the income statement as shown in Fig. 11.
The "business division" of the distribution curve as shown in FIG. 14 is specified by the business division code input on the business content input message screen of the business division as shown in FIG. Therefore, select (click) "NOPAT distribution" on the display menu message screen as shown in Fig. 13, and click "Evaluation year".
By inputting, the distribution curve as shown in FIG. 14 is obtained.

In the distribution curve as shown in FIG. 14, the horizontal axis represents NOPAT and the vertical axis represents probability density. And
The area surrounded by the horizontal axis and the distribution curve is set to "1", and the area surrounded by the vertical axis at the point p, the horizontal axis, and the distribution curve in the figure indicates the default rate (default rate). ing. Economic capital is from the zero point to the p point of this distribution curve. When the distribution curve as shown in FIG. 14 is obtained and "Return" is selected (clicked) on the business value evaluation message screen shown in FIG. 14, the process of the business value evaluation part G on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21 is performed. (Processing flow chart G for evaluating the business value of the business unit shown in FIG. 20) ends, and FIG.
Return to the project analysis message screen shown in.

Next, an investment judgment process for the business content of a specific business unit is performed. That is, on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21, the business investment determination unit H is selected (clicked). When the business investment judgment unit H is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21, the processing flow chart H for executing the business investment judgment shown in FIG. 20 by the business investment judgment unit H shown in FIG. 20 is executed. To be done. That is, when the business investment judgment section H is selected (clicked) on the project analysis message screen shown in FIG. 21, a display menu message screen as shown in FIG. 15 is displayed. This FIG.
In the display menu message screen shown in, "economic profit distribution", "economic capital", "risk-adjusted rate of return", and "investment decision" are shown, and any of these can be selected (clicked). It is like this.
This risk-adjusted rate of return is calculated by (economic profit / economic capital).

Now, when "economic profit distribution" is selected (clicked) on the display menu message screen as shown in FIG. 15, an investment judgment message screen for economic profit distribution as shown in FIG. 16 is displayed. In FIG. 16, 20
It can be seen that in 2001, it was (-), but in 2001 it turned to (+). When the economic profit distribution is known in this way, if "Return" is selected (clicked) on the investment judgment message screen of the economic profit distribution shown in FIG.
Returning to the display menu message screen as shown in, selecting (clicking) "economic capital" here displays the investment determination message screen for economic capital as shown in FIG. In FIG. 17, the economic capital characteristics and the shareholders' equity characteristics displayed for reference are shown.

When "Return" is selected (clicked) on the investment determination message screen of the economic capital shown in FIG. 17, the display menu message screen as shown in FIG. 15 is returned to, where "risk adjusted return rate" is displayed. 18 is selected (clicked), a risk adjusted return rate investment determination message screen as shown in FIG. 18 is displayed. In FIG. 18, the risk-adjusted return rate curve and the ROE curve are compared and displayed. In FIG. 18, the target ROE
For the curve, the risk-adjusted rate of return curve is shown to be achievable beyond 2003.

When "Return" is selected (clicked) on the risk-adjusted return rate investment judgment message screen shown in FIG. 18, the display menu message screen as shown in FIG. 15 is returned to, where "Investment judgment" is made. When you select (click), the message for comprehensive investment decision message is displayed. In making this "investment decision," the business division's contribution to society is considered, as well as performance. The contribution of this business unit to society is the impact that the business unit has on society and the environment, and the part that is not reflected in prices and costs, that is,
Enter the "external economy" or "external diseconomy" in economics, and enter non-accounting indicators to convert the amount on the system. In addition, the portion of stock such as intangible assets is converted into the amount of flow, taking into account the number of years that the effect will continue. In addition, there are environmental management, environmentally friendly product manufacturing, environmentally friendly production activities, and social interaction.

Convert the quantitative items of publicly available information in environmental accounting, such as CO2 emissions such as CO2 emissions, industrial waste, energy saving, and recycling, in the Ministry of the Environment's "Environmental Performance Indicators of Businesses-2000 Edition" into monetary amounts. . Not only that, it also includes contributions to society through free patents, shareware, etc. Thus, not only "economic benefit",
In consideration of such "social and environmental benefits", we will carry out management with appropriate weighting. Therefore, the total business profit of the business division is “economic profit” + ε × “social environmental profit”. Here, ε is a coefficient that is determined by the management and reflected in the overall business profit, taking into consideration the social situation and the intentions of shareholders so that sustainable growth can be achieved in harmony with society. .

Next, the calculation of the debt / capital ratio using the historical method will be described. This historical method
As shown in FIG. 29, the horizontal axis is the ROI (profit / invested capital), and data for the past several tens of years is added to create a graph, and the vertical axis shows the probability frequency. That is,
The higher the ROI (profit / invested capital) value, the better the performance, and the smaller the ROI (profit / invested capital) value, the worse the performance. In this way, the calculation of the debt / equity ratio using the historical method is performed by inputting the data of the past ROI of the business for several tens of years, selecting an appropriate curve from the logistic distribution, normal distribution, etc., and calculating the ROI probability distribution. It estimates the function. For the goodness-of-fit test, the Anderson-Darling test, which places importance on the goodness of fit at the tail of the distribution, is used.

Next, the calculation of the debt / capital ratio using the business simulation method will be described. This business simulation method uses a computer model of the business plan of the relevant business, and using this computer model, profit = f (external variable of management environment) (for example, market size x share x unit price-manufacturing The probability distribution function of profit and ROI is estimated by inputting a probability distribution into an exogenous variable having uncertainty, where (cost-borrowage x interest rate = profit) and performing Monte Carlo simulation.

When the debt / capital ratio is calculated in step 110 as described above, the debt / capital composition ratio (D / EaR) which is the target bankruptcy probability is calculated from FIG. 30 in step 112.

[0091] D / EaR = 1 / ABS (ROI *)-1 However, if ROI * ≧ 0 or D / EaR ≦ 0,
It is necessary to reset the target bankruptcy probability in this way.
When the calculation processing of the capital ratio is performed, the weighted average capital cost (WACC) is calculated in step 114.

On the other hand, in step 120, the actual profit is calculated, and in step 122, step 114
The market-effective added value (MEVA) is calculated by the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) calculated in (1), MEVA = profit ± adjustment− (invested capital ± adjustment) × WACC. Here, the adjustment includes R & D expenses, lease asset recording, and the like.

Further, in step 130, a non-accounting index is calculated, and in step 132, social and environmental added value (SEVA) is calculated. This socio-environmental added value (SEVA) is the effect that the company has on society and the environment and is not reflected in prices or costs. Therefore, the "external economy" or "external diseconomy" in economics is a non-accounting indicator. Is entered and converted into the amount on the system. In addition, the portion of stock such as intangible assets is converted into the amount of flow, taking into account the number of years that the effect will continue. In addition, there are environmental management, environmentally friendly product manufacturing, environmentally friendly production activities, and social interaction. By the way, the quantitative items of publicly available information in environmental accounting such as CO ₂ emissions such as CO ₂ emissions, industrial waste, energy saving, and recycling in the Ministry of the Environment “Environmental Performance Indicators of Businesses-2000 Edition” are converted into monetary amounts. To do. Not only that, it also includes contributions to society through free patents, shareware, etc.

The description of the management index processing system will be changed as follows.

The management index processing system according to the present invention can be applied to the management index for evaluating the entire company, the business divisions within the company, or the new business.

In the management index processing system according to the present invention, first, based on the stochastic distribution of profit that is uncertain with respect to the invested capital (investment amount), the capital composition (debt / capital ratio) that the invested capital should be. And the cost of the invested capital. By deducting this invested capital cost from the profit of the business, the market-efficient added value (ME
VA).

Next, a non-accounting index that is not directly reflected in the price or cost is converted into a monetary amount, and the social and environmental added value (SEVA) which is an external economic management index is obtained.

By combining these two, the future creation value (FIV), which is a management index showing the fundamental value of the business, is obtained.

FIG. 31 shows an embodiment of the management index processing system according to the present invention, and shows a system flowchart for performing processing by a computer.

The feature based on the present embodiment is that the process of evaluating the market-efficient added value (MEVA) of the business is calculated from the accounting index and the non-accounting index (step 122), and the social-environmental added value ( SEVA) processing (step 132) and future creative value (FIV) evaluation processing (step 150) constitute a link between management of in-company performance and incentives, and risk based on investment and withdrawal criteria. Considering (uncertainty), qualify business portfolio (selection and concentration), optimize capital structure (financing), and obtain management indicators that bring about sustainable growth in harmony with society It is possible.

First, the process of evaluating the market-effective added value (MEVA) will be described.

The economic added value of a business is calculated by subtracting the cost of capital invested in the business from the profit obtained by the business. In other words, market-efficient added value = business profit after tax-invested capital cost (1). This after-tax business profit is the net profit before interest payments and is calculated from accounting indicators. Invested capital cost is invested capital (the amount of investment required to develop a business)
Is the cost. This invested capital is expressed as invested capital = debt + capital (2). Therefore, the funds (liabilities) raised by borrowing money from financial institutions such as banks and the issuance of corporate bonds to carry out business, and the capital (capital) obtained by issuing shares, etc. The total is the invested capital. The ratio of invested capital cost to invested capital is the capital cost rate. In other words, invested capital cost = capital cost rate × invested capital (3).

This invested capital cost includes the cost required for the debt of the invested capital and the cost required for the capital of the invested capital. Therefore, the cost of capital rate includes debt costs such as interest rates on loans, and shareholders' equity costs, which is the expected rate of return on capital such as dividends paid to shareholders and an increase in retained earnings. In other words, invested capital cost = debt cost x debt + shareholder equity cost x equity (4). (3) Dividing the right side of (4) by the invested capital gives the following: cost of capital rate = debt cost x debt / invested capital + cost of equity capital x capital / invested capital (5). The cost of capital ratio can be calculated by weighting the cost of debt and the cost of equity capital by the capital structure.

Since the debt and capital are separated in the whole company, and the debt cost and the capital cost are efficiently determined in the market from the relationship between the risk and the return, the invested capital cost can be obtained. However, the invested capital for a business unit in a company is the invested capital allocated to the business unit from the invested capital of the entire company, and the risk is different for each business, so that the cost of capital ratio is not uniform.

Therefore, in the present invention, the cost of capital of the business is divided into hypothetical debt and capital by dividing the invested capital into the business according to the risk of the volatility of profit by the method described below. Find the rate. From this capital cost rate, the invested capital cost is calculated, and the economic added value of the business is calculated. From the viewpoint of bringing market efficiency inside the company, this indicator is market-effective value added (MEVA).
Is called.

From equations (1) and (3),         Market-efficient added value = (Business profit after tax / Invested capital-Capital cost ratio)                               × Invested capital ………… (6) It is represented by.

In this way, the market-efficient added value (MEV) is calculated from the after-tax business profit, invested capital and capital cost rate.
A) can be obtained. Whether the invested capital can be recovered can be determined by the ratio of the business profit after tax to the invested capital exceeding the cost of capital rate.

In calculating the cost of capital rate, (5)
Therefore, debt cost, cost of equity capital and capital structure are necessary.

First, the debt cost (Rd) will be described.

The debt cost is the interest rate of the borrowed money, and is determined by the credit rating based on the credit risk of the bankruptcy probability.
There is a correspondence between credit ratings, bankruptcy probabilities and debt costs in firms. For example, a company with a credit rating of “AAA” has a bankruptcy probability of “0.001%” and a debt cost of “1.5%”. Also, the credit rating is "A"
Companies have a bankruptcy probability of "0.1%" and a debt cost of "1.7%". As shown in FIG. 33, a correspondence table of credit ratings, bankruptcy probabilities, and debt costs is created from a database of past bankruptcy records and debt costs of companies corresponding to such credit ratings.

Using such a correspondence table, step 10
In 0, if the target credit rating of the company is set,
The bankruptcy probability is determined in step 102 and the debt cost is determined in step 104.

There is a one-to-one correspondence between credit ratings, bankruptcy probabilities, and debt costs. Therefore, in this example, the credit rating is set first, but the order of setting is not limited. If you enter one of the credit rating, bankruptcy probability, and debt cost, you can obtain the other two.

Next, the cost of shareholders' equity (Re) will be described.

This is the cost required for capital (increased dividends to shareholders or internal reserves) and has a corresponding relationship with stock price risk β.

As shown in FIG. 34, the horizontal axis indicates the return rate (Rm) of the comprehensive stock index of the market (for example, TSE stock index).
, And the vertical axis is the rate of return (Ri) of the stock price of the company (or other companies in the same industry in the case of unlisted companies), and when several tens of periods are shown daily, weekly or monthly, the regression line The slope is the stock price risk β. That is, Ri = α + β × Rm + εi ............ ( 7) Using the regression equation, the stock price risk β is obtained as β = (covariance of Ri and Rm) / (variance of Rm) (8).

This stock price risk β represents how many times the fluctuation of the stock price is the fluctuation of the market average. The greater the risk,
Large returns are required, and the cost of equity is high.

According to the asset price formation model (CAPM), as shown in FIG. 35, the horizontal axis represents the value of stock price risk,
If the rate of return (R) is taken on the vertical axis, it becomes a straight line of risk-return line.

Let Rf be a risk-free interest rate, which is the rate of return of risk-free assets such as government bonds with a stock price risk value of 0, and use a general stock index (for example, TSE stock index) of a market with a stock risk value of 1. When the rate of return is Rm, the return value (R) at the intersection of the stock price risk β and the risk-return line becomes the cost of equity capital (Re). That is, Re = Rf + β × (Rm−Rf) (9)

Using the above method, the value of the stock price risk β is calculated in step 106, and the cost of shareholders' equity (Re) is calculated in step 108.

Next, the capital structure (debt / capital ratio) in which the invested capital should be will be described.

Even if the profit fluctuates due to the business risk and becomes the deficit, the company can survive if the deficit up to the capital portion is exceeded, but if it exceeds it, the debt becomes excessive and the bankruptcy occurs. In other words, there is a correspondence relationship between the probability distribution of returns, the capital structure, and the bankruptcy probability.

In the present invention, the capital structure is obtained from the probability distribution of profit and the bankruptcy probability.

From the probability distribution of profit, the capital structure (debt / capital ratio) that the invested capital should be can be obtained.

As shown in FIG. 32, invested capital (investment amount)
Ratio of profit amount to (ROI: Return on
Investment (%) is plotted on the horizontal axis and probability frequency is plotted on the vertical axis, showing a ROI probability distribution curve due to business risk.

If the bankruptcy probability is set to, for example, "0.1%" when the total area of the distribution curve is 100%, ROI * is the ROI where the area of the graph from the left is 0.1%. Ask for. 0.1% of this area indicates that there is only 0.1% probability that there will be a further deficit. -40% in this example
And That is, in the case of a company (business) having the ROI distribution shown in FIG. 32, the probability of a deficit of 40% or more of the invested capital is 0.1%, so the composition of the invested capital is
If debt: capital = 60%: 40%, the probability that the debt will be exceeded and the company will go bankrupt is 0.1%.

As described above, in step 112, the desired capital structure is calculated. The bankruptcy probability of 0.1% corresponds to the credit rating "A", and if it corresponds to the credit rating "A", it is calculated from step 104 that the debt cost is 1.7%. On the other hand, the cost of shareholders' equity is calculated in step 108. From these, in step 114, the capital cost rate is calculated.

Then, the invested capital cost obtained by multiplying the capital cost rate calculated in step 114 by the invested capital is subtracted from the after-tax business profit obtained in step 120, and in step 122, the market-efficient added value ( MEVA) is calculated.

By the way, the future market efficiency added value according to the business plan needs to be discounted and evaluated by the capital cost rate which is the value of uncertainty and time. Therefore, if the market-effective added value after T years is MEVA (T), this is divided by (1 + capital cost rate) to the power of T to obtain the present value. In other words, present value = MEVA (T) ÷ (1 + capital cost rate) ^T ............ (10).

Similarly, the cumulative present value obtained by accumulating the present value for N years is Becomes This index can be used for the primary judgment of management decision making such as investment and withdrawal in business development.

Here, the market-efficient added value (MEVA)
The following shows an example of investment plan judgment by. For example, a normal investment plan is represented by the graph shown in FIG. The bar graph shows cumulative profit and loss, and the line graph shows profit before tax.
In this example, the profit (profit before tax) shown by the line graph is in the black in the second year, and the cumulative profit / loss is in the black after four years. However, in the market-efficient added value (MEVA) from which the invested capital cost is subtracted, the graph shown in FIG. 42 is obtained, the value of the accumulated present value becomes small, and the collection time also differs. Considering future uncertainties,
Using the cumulative present value can make a more appropriate investment decision.

Next, the social and environmental added value (SEVA) will be described.

When a company develops a business, when it gives a bad environment to the society, it may contribute to the society by volunteer activities, welfare activities, etc. These are the parts that are not directly reflected in the price and cost of the image in the society. May increase the value of the company or business. There is a non-accounting part that does not reflect such prices and costs, and corresponds to the "external economy" or "external diseconomy" in economics. In this way, because it is not directly tied to money and is not directly reflected in price or cost, market-efficient added value (MEV
Although not evaluated in A), the value of the company or business may be increased, such as the excitement of the social image being evaluated in terms of trust and the like, and the advertising effect may be generated. These are calculated in step 130. The non-accounting index, step 13
In 2, the amount converted on the system is referred to as social and environmental added value (SEVA).

It is an intangible asset that produces this socio-environmental added value (SEVA). For example, regarding environmental-related parts such as environmental management, environmentally friendly product manufacturing, environmentally friendly production activities, and interaction with society, CO _{2 in the} Ministry of the Environment “Environmental Performance Index of Businesses-2000 Edition”
Greenhouse gas emissions, industrial waste, energy conservation, etc.
Convert quantitative items of information disclosed in “environmental accounting” such as recycling into monetary amounts. Other intangible assets such as brand value, free patents, contributions to society through shareware, etc. will also be converted into monetary amounts in consideration of the number of years that the effects will continue.

Next, the process (step 150) of evaluating future creative value (FIV) will be described.

The socio-environmental added value (SEVA) obtained in step 122 is multiplied by the contribution ratio (ε) to the added value in the whole business, and added to the market efficiency added value (MEVA) obtained in step 132. Then, the future creation value (FIV), which is a fundamental index for increasing corporate value, is calculated. The contribution ratio (ε) is a regression analysis based on past data from the relationship between social and environmental added value and market-efficient added value / shareholder value, and the current or The management is set in consideration of two levels of interest in the future. That is, future creative value = MEVA + ε × SEVA (12).

[0136] When the future creative value (FIV) is calculated in this way, it becomes possible to make a more accurate judgment of investment or withdrawal, in addition to judgment of cumulative present value and judgment of real option.

Next, calculation of business risk (step 11
0) will be described. Here, the ROI of the business
The probability distribution of (profit / invested capital) is obtained by the historical method, simulation method, RVM method, or the like.

First, the calculation of the ROI (profit / invested capital) probability distribution using the historical method will be described. This historical method is used for future ROI (profit / invested capital)
The probability distribution of is obtained by combining the following three distributions.

One of them is the past R as shown in FIG.
It is the OI distribution (earnings risk). The example is a bar graph showing the frequency distribution using 50 data for each half year of the past 25 years. A curve of a probability density function (for example, normal distribution) that approximates the distribution is obtained based on this frequency distribution.

Secondly, as shown in FIG. 37, the R of the actual difference is shown.
It is the OI distribution (expected risk). Regarding the distribution of the deviation between the ROI budget and the actual calculation, the one where the budget was achieved with the 0 point on the vertical axis as the boundary is the right side (+ side) of the figure, and the one where the budget was not achieved is the left side (− side) 2 is a bar graph showing the frequency distribution. A curve of a probability density function (for example, normal distribution) that approximates the distribution is obtained based on this frequency distribution. The ROI prediction / actual difference distribution as shown in FIG. 37 shows the achievement error of the plan.

Thirdly, the ROI which is the plan of the relevant business is input.

Based on the above three inputs, the profit risk and the expected risk are combined around the planned value, and the future ROI
Find the probability distribution of. For example, the ROI distribution (revenue risk) based on the past results shown in FIG. 36 and FIG.
By combining the ROI distribution (predicted risk) of the prediction difference shown in (1) and the future ROI plan (for example, 8%), the ROI distribution as shown in FIG. 38 is obtained.

Next, the ROI using the simulation method
The calculation of the probability distribution of (profit / invested capital) will be described. This simulation method uses a computer model of the business plan of the business, and profit = f (exogenous variable of the business environment) ... (13) (for example, profit = market size x market share x selling price) -Manufacturing cost), the probability distribution function of profit and ROI is estimated by inputting a probability distribution to an exogenous variable having uncertainty and performing Monte Carlo simulation.

FIG. 39 shows, for example, a diagram in which an exogenous fluctuation factor (risk) is added to a company set up in country A. That is, profit is determined by sales and costs, and sales are determined by the number of units and price. Further, the cost is determined by the material cost and the like. In this business, the economy of country A and the economy of Japan are thought to affect exogenous fluctuation factors (risks).

Taking into account the uncertainty of the business environment, the past probability distribution is input to the exogenous variable, and the Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to correct the profit by the exchange rate or the price fluctuation. A graph showing the probability distribution with respect to the absolute profit of the axis is output. from now on,
The ROI distribution as shown in FIG. 38 is obtained.

Third RV selected from matrix
The calculation of the probability distribution of ROI (profit / invested capital) using the M method will be described.

Databases of ROI distributions of various companies are created in advance, and this is called a risk matrix. RVM (Risk Value Mat) is a benchmark method in which a group of companies having characteristics most similar to the characteristics of the business is extracted and the ROI distribution of the group of businesses is regarded as the probability distribution of the ROI of the business.
rix) method.

The RVM method will be described in detail below with reference to FIG.

FIG. 43 shows a processing flowchart showing an embodiment for obtaining a management index for judging whether or not to invest in a new business when the RVM method is used.

In FIG. 43, A is a processing flowchart for analyzing past data to create a database, and B is
Is a process flow chart for inputting a business plan, C is a process flow chart for evaluating the value of the investment target company, D is a process flow chart for making an investment decision, and these process flow charts are processed by an arithmetic processing unit (not shown). To be done.

The process flow chart A for analyzing the past data and creating the database is as follows. In step 10, a financial database for accumulating the past financial data is constructed, and in step 11, the invested capital of the business profit after tax is set. The calculation process of the ratio (ROI) is performed. In step 12, the database is built. In step 13, the profit is predicted using regression analysis based on the database, and in step 14, the probability distribution of the prediction error δ is calculated. In step 15, the database is classified by risk characteristic factors.
In step 16, an error histogram is created for each characteristic factor and stored in the database. This is the risk matrix.

In the process flowchart C for evaluating the value of the investment target company from the business plan input in the process flowchart B, in step 20, the predicted value of the business profit after tax is calculated, and the risk matrix created in step 16 On the basis of the above, in step 21, companies with similar characteristic factors to the business concerned are extracted, and the ROI probability distribution is calculated. Then, in step 22, the capital cost is subtracted to calculate the economic profit (MEVA).
In step 23, the cumulative present value of the economic profit (MEVA) in the business plan is calculated.

Accordingly, the investment decision is made in the processing flowchart D.

Further, the description of the management index processing system will be changed as follows.

The management index processing system according to the present invention can be applied to a management index for evaluating an entire company, an internal business department, or a new business.

In the management index processing system according to the present invention, first, based on the stochastic distribution of profit that is uncertain with respect to the invested capital (investment amount), the capital composition (debt / capital ratio) that the invested capital should be. And the cost of the invested capital. By deducting this invested capital cost from the profit of the business, the market-efficient added value (ME
VA).

Next, a non-accounting index that is not directly reflected in the price or cost is converted into a monetary amount, and the social and environmental added value (SEVA) that is an external economic management index is obtained.

By combining the two, the future creation value (FIV), which is a management index showing the fundamental value of the business, is obtained.

FIG. 44 shows a flowchart of the concept of the management index processing system according to the present invention.

The feature of the present embodiment is that the process of evaluating the market-effective added value (MEVA) of the business is calculated from the accounting index and the non-accounting index (step 122), and the social-environmental added value ( SEVA) processing (step 132) and future creative value (FIV) evaluation processing (step 150) constitute a link between management of in-company performance and incentives, and risk based on investment and withdrawal criteria. Considering (uncertainty), qualify business portfolio (selection and concentration), optimize capital structure (financing), and obtain management indicators that bring about sustainable growth in harmony with society It is possible.

First, the process of evaluating the market-efficient added value (MEVA) will be described.

The economic added value of a business is calculated by subtracting the cost of capital invested in the business from the profit obtained by the business. That is, market-efficient added value = business profit after tax-invested capital cost (14). This after-tax business profit is the net profit before interest payments and is calculated from accounting indicators. Invested capital cost is invested capital (the amount of investment required to develop a business)
Is the cost. This invested capital is expressed as invested capital = debt + equity (15). Therefore, the funds (liabilities) raised by borrowing money from financial institutions such as banks and the issuance of corporate bonds to carry out business, and the capital (capital) obtained by issuing shares, etc. The total is the invested capital. The ratio of invested capital cost to invested capital is the capital cost rate. That is, invested capital cost = capital cost rate × invested capital (16).

The invested capital cost includes the cost required for the debt of the invested capital and the cost required for the capital of the invested capital. Therefore, the cost of capital rate includes debt costs such as interest rates on loans, and shareholders' equity costs, which is the expected rate of return on capital such as dividends paid to shareholders and an increase in retained earnings. In other words, invested capital cost = debt cost x debt + shareholder equity cost x equity (17). (16) If the right side of (17) is divided by the invested capital, the cost of capital rate = debt cost x debt / invested capital + cost of shareholders' equity x capital / invested capital (18). The cost of capital ratio can be calculated by weighting the cost of debt and the cost of equity capital by the capital structure.

Since the debt and capital are separated in the whole company, and the debt cost and the capital cost are efficiently determined in the market from the relationship between the risk and the return, the invested capital cost can be obtained. However, the invested capital for a business unit in a company is the invested capital allocated to the business unit from the invested capital of the entire company, and the risk is different for each business, so that the cost of capital ratio is not uniform.

Therefore, according to the present invention, the cost of capital of the business is divided into hypothetical debt and capital by dividing the invested capital into the business according to the risk of volatility of profits by the method described below. Find the rate. From this capital cost rate, the invested capital cost is calculated, and the economic added value of the business is calculated. From the viewpoint of bringing market efficiency inside the company, this indicator is market-effective value added (MEVA).
Is called.

From equations (14) and (16),         Market-efficient added value = (Business profit after tax / Invested capital-Capital cost ratio)                               × Invested capital ………… (19) It is represented by.

In this way, the market-efficient added value (MEV) is calculated from the after-tax business profit, invested capital and capital cost rate.
A) can be obtained. Whether the invested capital can be recovered can be determined by the ratio of the business profit after tax to the invested capital exceeding the cost of capital rate.

In calculating the capital cost rate, (1
From 8), debt cost, equity cost and capital structure are necessary.

First, the debt cost (Rd) will be described.

The debt cost is the interest rate of the borrowed money, and is determined by the credit rating based on the credit risk of the bankruptcy probability.
There is a correspondence between credit ratings, bankruptcy probabilities and debt costs in firms. For example, a company with a credit rating of “AAA” has a bankruptcy probability of “0.001%” and a debt cost of “1.5%”. Also, the credit rating is "A"
Companies have a bankruptcy probability of "0.1%" and a debt cost of "1.7%". As shown in FIG. 46, a correspondence table of credit ratings, bankruptcy probabilities, and debt costs is created from a database of past bankruptcy records and debt costs of companies corresponding to such credit ratings.

Using such a correspondence table, step 10
In 0, if the target credit rating of the company is set,
The bankruptcy probability is determined in step 102 and the debt cost is determined in step 104.

There is a one-to-one correspondence between credit ratings, bankruptcy probabilities, and debt costs. Therefore, in this example, the credit rating is set first, but the order of setting is not limited. If you enter one of the credit rating, bankruptcy probability, and debt cost, you can obtain the other two.

Next, the cost of shareholders' equity (Re) will be described.

This is the cost required for capital (increased dividends to shareholders or internal reserves) and has a corresponding relationship with stock price risk β.

As shown in FIG. 47, the horizontal axis represents the return rate (Rm) of the comprehensive stock index of the market (eg TSE stock index).
, And the vertical axis is the rate of return (Ri) of the stock price of the company (or other companies in the same industry in the case of unlisted companies), and when several tens of periods are shown daily, weekly or monthly, the regression line The slope is the stock price risk β. That is, Ri = α + β × Rm + εi ............ ( 20) Using the following regression equation, the stock price risk β is obtained as β = (covariance of Ri and Rm) / (dispersion of Rm) (21).

The stock price risk β represents how many times the fluctuation of the stock price is relative to the fluctuation of the market average. The greater the risk,
Large returns are required, and the cost of equity is high.

According to the asset price formation model (CAPM), as shown in FIG. 48, the horizontal axis represents the value of stock price risk,
If the rate of return (R) is taken on the vertical axis, it becomes a straight line of risk-return line.

Let Rf be a risk-free interest rate, which is the rate of return of risk-free assets such as government bonds with a stock price risk value of 0, and use a general stock price index (for example, TSE stock index) of a market with a stock price risk value of 1. When the rate of return is Rm, the return value (R) at the intersection of the stock price risk β and the risk-return line becomes the cost of equity capital (Re). That is, Re = Rf + β × (Rm−Rf) (22)

Using the above method, the value of the stock price risk β is calculated in step 106, and the cost of shareholders' equity (Re) is calculated in step 108.

Next, the capital structure (debt / capital ratio) in which the invested capital should be will be described.

Even if the profit fluctuates due to business risk and becomes a deficit, the company can survive if the deficit up to the capital portion is exceeded, but if it exceeds that, the debt becomes excessive and the company goes bankrupt. In other words, there is a correspondence relationship between the probability distribution of returns, the capital structure, and the bankruptcy probability.

In the present invention, the capital structure is obtained from the probability distribution of profit and the bankruptcy probability.

From the probability distribution of profit, the capital structure (debt / capital ratio) that the invested capital should be can be obtained.

As shown in FIG. 45, invested capital (investment amount)
Ratio of profit amount to (ROI: Return on
Investment (%) is plotted on the horizontal axis and probability frequency is plotted on the vertical axis, showing a ROI probability distribution curve due to business risk.

If the bankruptcy probability is set to, for example, "0.1%" when the total area of the distribution curve is 100%, ROI * is the ROI where the area of the graph from the left is 0.1%. Ask for. 0.1% of this area indicates that there is only 0.1% probability that there will be a further deficit. -40% in this example
And That is, in the case of a company (business) having the ROI distribution shown in FIG. 45, the probability of a deficit of 40% or more of the invested capital is 0.1%, so the composition of the invested capital is
If debt: capital = 60%: 40%, the probability that the debt will be exceeded and the company will go bankrupt is 0.1%.

As described above, in step 112, the desired capital structure is calculated. The bankruptcy probability of 0.1% corresponds to the credit rating "A", and if it corresponds to the credit rating "A", it is calculated from step 104 that the debt cost is 1.7%. On the other hand, the cost of shareholders' equity is calculated in step 108. From these, in step 114, the capital cost rate is calculated.

Then, the invested capital cost obtained by multiplying the capital cost rate calculated in step 114 by the invested capital is subtracted from the after-tax business profit obtained in step 120, and in step 122, the market-efficient added value ( MEVA) is calculated.

By the way, the future market-efficient added value according to the business plan needs to be discounted and evaluated by the capital cost rate which is the value of uncertainty and time. Therefore, if the market-effective added value after T years is MEVA (T), this is divided by (1 + capital cost rate) to the power of T to obtain the present value. In other words, present value = MEVA (T) ÷ (1 + capital cost rate) ^T ………… (23).

Similarly, the cumulative present value obtained by accumulating the present value for N years is Becomes This index can be used for the primary judgment of management decision making such as investment and withdrawal in business development.

Here, the market-efficient added value (MEVA)
The following shows an example of investment plan judgment by. For example, a normal investment plan is represented by the graph shown in FIG. The bar graph shows cumulative profit and loss, and the line graph shows profit before tax.
In this example, the profit (profit before tax) shown by the line graph is in the black in the second year, and the cumulative profit / loss is in the black after four years. However, in the market-efficient added value (MEVA) from which the invested capital cost is subtracted, the graph shown in FIG. 55 is obtained, the value of the accumulated present value becomes small, and the collection time also differs. Considering future uncertainties,
Using the cumulative present value can make a more appropriate investment decision.

Next, the social and environmental added value (SEVA) will be described.

When a company develops a business, when it gives a bad environment to the society, it may contribute to the society by volunteer activities, welfare activities, etc. These are parts that are not directly reflected in the price and cost of the image in the society. May increase the value of the company or business. There is a non-accounting part that does not reflect such prices and costs, and corresponds to the "external economy" or "external diseconomy" in economics. In this way, because it is not directly tied to money and is not directly reflected in price or cost, market-efficient added value (MEV
Although not evaluated in A), the value of the company or business may be increased, such as the excitement of the social image being evaluated in terms of trust and the like, and the advertising effect may be generated. These are calculated in step 130. The non-accounting index, step 13
In 2, the amount converted on the system is referred to as social and environmental added value (SEVA).

It is an intangible asset that produces this socio-environmental added value (SEVA). For example, regarding environmental-related parts such as environmental management, environmentally friendly product manufacturing, environmentally friendly production activities, and interaction with society, CO _{2 in the} Ministry of the Environment “Environmental Performance Index of Businesses-2000 Edition”
Greenhouse gas emissions, industrial waste, energy conservation, etc.
Convert quantitative items of information disclosed in “environmental accounting” such as recycling into monetary amounts. Other intangible assets such as brand value, free patents, contributions to society through shareware, etc. will also be converted into monetary amounts in consideration of the number of years that the effects will continue.

Next, the process (step 150) for evaluating future creative value (FIV) will be described.

The socio-environmental added value (SEVA) obtained in step 122 is multiplied by the contribution ratio (ε) to the added value in the entire business, and added to the market efficiency added value (MEVA) obtained in step 132. Then, the future creation value (FIV), which is a fundamental index for increasing corporate value, is calculated. The contribution ratio (ε) is a regression analysis based on past data from the relationship between social and environmental added value and market-efficient added value / shareholder value, and the current or The management is set in consideration of two levels of interest in the future. That is, future creative value = MEVA + ε × SEVA (25).

When the future future creation value (FIV) is calculated in this way, it becomes possible to make a more accurate judgment of investment and withdrawal, in addition to judgment of cumulative present value and judgment of real options.

Next, calculation of business risk (step 11
0) will be described. Here, the ROI of the business
The probability distribution of (profit / invested capital) is obtained by the historical method, simulation method, RVM method, or the like.

First, the calculation of the ROI (profit / invested capital) probability distribution using the historical method will be described. This historical method is used for future ROI (profit / invested capital)
The probability distribution of is obtained by combining the following three distributions.

One of them is the past R as shown in FIG.
It is the OI distribution (earnings risk). For example, the frequency distribution is represented as a bar graph using 50 data for each half year of the past 25 years. Based on this frequency distribution,
A curve of a probability density function (for example, normal distribution) that approximates the distribution is obtained.

Secondly, as shown in FIG.
It is the OI distribution (expected risk). Regarding the distribution of the deviation between the ROI budget and the actual calculation, the one where the budget was achieved with the 0 point on the vertical axis as the boundary is the right side (+ side) of the figure, and the one where the budget was not achieved is the left side (− side) 2 is a bar graph showing the frequency distribution. A curve of a probability density function (for example, normal distribution) that approximates the distribution is obtained based on this frequency distribution. The ROI preliminary / real difference distribution as shown in FIG. 50 shows the achievement error of the plan.

Thirdly, the ROI which is the plan of the relevant business is input.

Based on the above three inputs, the profit risk and the expected risk are combined around the planned value, and the future ROI
Find the probability distribution of. For example, the ROI distribution (revenue risk) based on the past results shown in FIG. 49 and FIG.
By combining the ROI distribution (predicted risk) of the actual difference shown in (1) and the future ROI plan (for example, 8%), the ROI distribution as shown in FIG. 51 is obtained.

Next, the ROI using the simulation method
The calculation of the probability distribution of (profit / invested capital) will be described. This simulation method uses a computer model of the business plan of the business, and profit = f (exogenous variable of the business environment) ... (26) (for example, profit = market size x market share x selling price) -Manufacturing cost), the probability distribution function of profit and ROI is estimated by inputting a probability distribution to an exogenous variable having uncertainty and performing Monte Carlo simulation.

FIG. 52 shows, for example, a diagram in which the factor of exogenous fluctuation (risk) is added to a company to be set up in country A. That is, profit is determined by sales and costs, and sales are determined by the number of units and price. Further, the cost is determined by the material cost and the like. In this business, the economy of country A and the economy of Japan are thought to affect exogenous fluctuation factors (risks).

Taking into account the uncertainty of the business environment, the past probability distribution is input to the exogenous variable and the Monte Carlo simulation is carried out, whereby the profit is corrected by the exchange rate and the price fluctuation, and the horizontal line in FIG. A graph showing the probability distribution with respect to the absolute profit of the axis is output. from now on,
The ROI distribution as shown in FIG. 51 is obtained.

Next, the system and its processing operation will be described with reference to the system block diagram for carrying out the management index processing shown in FIG. 56 and the detailed flow charts shown in FIGS. 57 to 62.

The system shown in FIG. 56 is a so-called computer system, and the input unit 170 and the output unit 17 are connected to the bus 192.
2, processing unit 174, temporary storage unit 176, transmission / reception unit 17
8 and a storage unit for storing various data files 180 to 190.

The input section 170 is an input means of a known personal computer PC equipped with a key input or a mouse, and may further include a reading device for a recording medium such as a CD. The output unit 172 is a display device of a PC and further a printing device. The processing unit 174 is a PC processing device or a server processing device. Temporary storage unit 176 is P
C or the main memory of the server. This system can be connected to an external site from the transmitting / receiving unit 178 via a public line such as the Internet.

The data file 180 stores the correspondence table of credit rating, bankruptcy probability and debt cost shown in FIG. As shown in FIG. 57, the credit rating data and the bankruptcy probability data, which are generally published by the rating company, are purchased and input from the input unit 170. The debt cost data is purchased from a bank and is also input from the input unit 170. These data input from the input unit 170 are edited by the processing unit 174, and the data file 18
It is stored as 0.

The data file 182 stores stock price data. The data file 184 stores the ROI / probability frequency data shown in FIG. The data file 186 stores files of a past ROI diagram 49, a past preliminary and actual difference ROI data data diagram 50, a ROI distribution diagram 51, and a simulation model and a data diagram 52. The other file 188 stores business management data, and the data file 190 stores social environment added value data.

Next, the processing of the historical method in step 110 in FIG. 44 will be described with reference to FIG.

First, for example, the ROI data for the past 25 years is input from the input unit 170, or the published past ROI data is acquired and stored in the data file 186 (402). Next, the processing unit 174 creates a graph as shown in FIG. 49 from the past ROI data and displays it on the display device 1.
It is displayed on the screen 72 (404). The budget and actual calculation data of the past ROI are input from the input unit 170, or acquired from the accounting-related database and loaded. Then, from the past ROI budget and actual calculation data, the processing unit 174
A graph is created in the display unit of the output unit 172 in FIG.
A graph like this is displayed (408). Then, as the business plan value, data such as 8% is input from the input unit 174 (410). In this way, step 4040,
A ROI distribution is created from the data of FIGS. 49 and 50, which are the processing results of 408, and the input value “8%”, and a graph as shown in FIG. 51 is displayed on the output unit 172.

Next, the processing of the simulation method in step 110 in FIG. 44 will be described with reference to FIG. The simulation method uses ROI
Is a way to get. As shown in FIG. 52, models of exogenous fluctuation factors, sales and profits are created, and a data file 186
(412). Next, the model coefficient is determined from the past similar data (414). Then, the fluctuation factor is changed to simulate the fluctuation of profit (416). After that, while obtaining and holding the probability distribution of the absolute amount of profit,
A graph as shown in FIG. 53 is displayed on the output unit 172 (41
8). Then, the processing unit 174 calculates and calculates the ROI distribution from the distribution of the absolute profit amount, and the result is displayed on the output unit 174 as shown in FIG. 51 (420).

Next, referring to FIG. 58, the process of calculating the debt cost shown in FIG. 44 will be described. First, regarding the setting of each credit, the table data of FIG. 46 is read from the data file 180 and displayed on the output unit 172 (302). Next, the credit rating is input from the input unit 170. This is temporarily stored in the storage unit 176 (304).

Next, the processing unit 174 calculates the bankruptcy probability from the table data of FIG. The result is the temporary storage unit 176.
Is temporarily held (102). Then, the processing unit 174 calculates the debt cost from the table data of FIG.

Next, the calculation of the market-effective added value (MEVA) will be described with reference to FIG.

First, in calculating the stock price risk β from the stock price fluctuation (step 106), the past stock price fluctuation of the Tokyo Stock Exchange is received from the database of the buying section via the transmitting / receiving section 178 (312). This is stored in the data file 182, but the processing unit 174 does not store the data in FIG.
A distribution graph is created and displayed on the output unit 172 and the β value is displayed on the graph (314). Then, the β value is confirmed by operating the confirmation button on the display screen. This value is stored in the temporary storage unit 176. Next, for the calculation of the cost of equity capital (step 108), Rf is input (3
18), the cost of shareholders' equity (Re) is calculated by the processing unit 174 (320).

Regarding the calculation of the business risk, the processing unit 174 calculates the probability frequency of the ROI shown in FIG. 45 by the historical method shown in FIG. 61 or the simulation method shown in FIG. 62, and the graph of FIG. Create (11
0). Next, regarding the calculation of the desired capital structure (112), the set value of the bankruptcy probability to be evaluated is input from the input unit 170 (322), and the processing unit 174 calculates the business risk (110) and the bankruptcy probability. From (102), the desired capital structure is calculated (324). Then, the processing unit 174 calculates the capital cost rate according to the equation (18) (11
4). Further, the data of the profit after tax is obtained from the data file 188, or the accounting index such as the peak value of FIG. 45 is input (120) to calculate the MEVA. This calculation is performed according to equations (19), (23) and (24) (1
22), and as a result, the graph shown in FIG. 54 or 55 is created and displayed on the display device of the output unit 172. The calculation result calculated by the processing unit 174 is temporarily stored in the temporary storage unit 176 at a stage before the display output during the calculation.
Stored in.

Those involved in management evaluation make investment decisions by looking at the status of the displayed graph. Of course, FIG.
4 or the values of the graph shown in FIG. 55 may be determined by the processing unit 174. For example, a management judgment reference value is set in advance and stored in the storage unit 176 and stored, and the processing unit 174 compares the relationship with the setting value, for example, the present value of the graph and the size relationship between the setting values, and invests. You may make it output as a judgment.

Next, the processing of SEVA and FIV will be described with reference to FIG.

As a non-accounting index, processing for determining investment items of social and environmental added value is performed (13).
0). These investment items include, for example, investment for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, investment for reducing industrial waste, investment for energy saving, investment for recycling, investment for improving brand value, Investment for patent acquisition, etc. can be raised. These items are usually digitized and input from the input unit 170. For some of the items, after input, after being calculated by the processing unit 174,
Some are used. Calculation of SEVA (13
2) sets a model of future profit or cost reduction of investment items (344). As an example of the model, for example, profit / reduction amount = coefficient × investment amount can be calculated (320). The coefficient for each item is determined from historical data or government or other public data (346). When the coefficient related to each item is calculated and determined, the processing unit 174 next calculates the profit / profit of the investment item based on these coefficients.
The reduction amount is calculated (348). In the processing unit 174, subsequently, calculation for calculating the present profit from the calculated future profit or cost reduction amount is performed (350). As a result, SEVA is calculated.

Next, the future creation value FIV is calculated (150). This is performed by the processing unit 174 based on the equation (12) (352), and the result is output by the output unit 172.
Is displayed or printed and output (354).

The management evaluator evaluates the FI which is the output result.
With reference to V, the current investment or withdrawal will be determined. However, it is possible to go one step further and allow the processing unit 174 to make the determination. For example, a management judgment reference value is set in advance, stored in the temporary storage unit 176, and stored in the temporary storage unit 176. A relationship between the management judgment reference value and the set value, for example, FIV which is a calculation result, and a magnitude relationship between the preset values are set. May be compared and calculated.

[0224]

As described above, according to the management index processing system of the present invention, the business performance is managed and linked with incentives, risk (uncertainty) is considered in the investment and withdrawal criteria, and the business is implemented. The portfolio (selection and concentration) can be properly qualified, the invested capital and debt structure (financing) can be optimized, and management indicators that bring about sustainable growth in harmony with society can be obtained.

Further, according to the management index processing system of the present invention, it is possible to revitalize internal business operations, and
It is possible to identify withdrawal, concentrate business, achieve normal financial management, and achieve sustainable growth through social harmony.

Further, according to the management index processing system of the present invention, the business portfolio (selection and concentration) is considered in consideration of risk (uncertainty) in the investment and withdrawal criteria by linking with management of in-house performance and incentives. ) Qualify
It is possible to optimize the capital structure (financing) and obtain management indicators that bring about sustainable growth in harmony with society.

Furthermore, according to the management index processing system of the present invention, in-house operations are revitalized, business investment and withdrawal are identified, business is centralized, normal financial management is achieved, and social Harmonization allows a company to grow sustainably.

Further, according to the management index processing system of the present invention, the business portfolio (selection and concentration) is considered in consideration of risk (uncertainty) in the investment and withdrawal criteria by linking with management and incentive of internal performance. ) Qualify
It is possible to optimize the capital structure (financing) and obtain management indicators that bring about sustainable growth in harmony with society.

Further, according to the management index processing system of the present invention, in-house operations are revitalized, business investment and withdrawal are identified, business is concentrated, normal financial management is achieved, and social harmonization is achieved. This will enable companies to grow sustainably.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a processing flowchart showing an embodiment in which a management index processing system according to the present invention is applied to a management index for determining whether or not to invest in a new business.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a project analysis message screen.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an error database creation message screen.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a processing screen of the regression analysis shown in FIG.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a frequency distribution of prediction error δ of NOPAT / invested capital.

FIG. 6 is a histogram of prediction errors classified by asset size.

FIG. 7 is a histogram of prediction errors classified by profitability.

FIG. 8 is a histogram of prediction errors classified by industry.

FIG. 9 is a diagram in which a frequency distribution of prediction errors δ is obtained under the condition specified by a classification factor.

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a business plan input message screen of the balance sheet.

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing a business plan input message screen of the income statement.

FIG. 12 is a diagram showing a business plan input message screen.

FIG. 13 is a diagram showing a display menu message screen for business value evaluation.

FIG. 14 is a diagram showing a NOPAT distribution curve.

FIG. 15 is a diagram showing a display menu message screen for investment judgment.

FIG. 16 is a diagram showing an investment judgment message screen of economic profit distribution.

FIG. 17 is a diagram showing an investment determination message screen of economic capital.

FIG. 18 is a diagram showing a risk-adjusted return rate investment determination message screen.

FIG. 19 is a diagram showing a comprehensive investment judgment message screen.

FIG. 20 is a processing flowchart showing an embodiment in which the management index processing system according to the present invention is applied to a management index for evaluating the business value of a business unit in a company and determining whether or not a business investment should be made.

FIG. 21 is a diagram showing a project analysis message screen.

FIG. 22 is a histogram of prediction errors classified by division.

FIG. 23 is a diagram showing a frequency distribution of prediction errors δ under the condition specified by a classification factor.

FIG. 24 is a diagram showing a business content input message screen of the business unit.

FIG. 25 is a system flowchart showing an embodiment of a management index processing system according to the present invention.

FIG. 26 is a diagram showing a relationship between rating, bankruptcy rate, and debt cost.

FIG. 27 is a diagram for calculating a shareholder cost.

FIG. 28 is a diagram for calculating a shareholder cost.

FIG. 29 is a distribution diagram based on the historical method.

FIG. 30 is a diagram showing a composition ratio of debt and capital that is a target bankruptcy rate.

FIG. 31 is a system flowchart showing an embodiment of a management index processing system according to the present invention.

FIG. 32 is a diagram showing a composition ratio of debt and capital that is a target bankruptcy probability.

FIG. 33 is a diagram showing a relationship among rating, bankruptcy probability, and debt cost.

FIG. 34 is a diagram for calculating a stock price risk β from a stock price and a comprehensive stock index of a market.

FIG. 35 is a diagram for calculating a shareholder cost.

FIG. 36 is a distribution chart of past ROIs based on the historical method.

FIG. 37 is a distribution chart of ROI prediction deviation based on the historical method.

FIG. 38 is a diagram showing a probability distribution of ROI.

FIG. 39 is a diagram showing a relationship between an exogenous variable and a profit based on a simulation method.

FIG. 40 is a diagram showing a probability distribution of absolute profit amounts.

FIG. 41 is a diagram showing profit before tax and cumulative profit / loss of an investment plan.

FIG. 42 is a diagram showing MEVA and cumulative present value of an investment plan.

FIG. 43 is a processing flowchart showing an embodiment applied to a management index for determining whether or not to invest in a new business based on the RVM method.

FIG. 44 is a diagram showing a concept of implementation of a management index processing system according to the present invention.

FIG. 45 is a diagram showing a composition ratio of debt and capital that is a target bankruptcy probability.

FIG. 46 is a diagram showing a relationship between rating, bankruptcy probability, and debt cost.

FIG. 47 is a diagram for calculating the stock price risk β from the stock price and the comprehensive stock index of the market.

FIG. 48 is a diagram for calculating a shareholder cost.

FIG. 49 is a distribution chart of past ROIs based on the historical method.

FIG. 50 is a distribution diagram of ROI prediction deviation based on the historical method.

FIG. 51 is a diagram showing a probability distribution of ROI.

FIG. 52 is a diagram showing a relationship between an exogenous variable and a profit based on a simulation method.

FIG. 53 is a diagram showing a probability distribution of absolute profit amounts.

FIG. 54 is a diagram showing a profit before tax and a cumulative profit and loss of an investment plan.

FIG. 55 is a diagram showing MEVA and cumulative present value of an investment plan.

FIG. 56 is a system configuration diagram according to an embodiment of a management index processing system.

FIG. 57 is a processing operation flowchart in the management index processing system.

FIG. 58 is a processing operation flowchart in the management index processing system.

FIG. 59 is a processing operation flowchart of MEVA in the management index processing system.

FIG. 60 is a processing operation flowchart of SEVA and FIV in the management index processing system.

61 is a processing flowchart of the historical method in step 110 of FIG. 44. FIG.

62 is a processing flowchart of the simulation method in step 110 of FIG. 44. FIG.

[Explanation of symbols]

A …………………………. Error database creation processing unit B ………………………… Business plan input section C ………………………… Business Value Evaluation Department D ………………………… Investment decision department E ………………………. Error database creation processing unit F ………………………… Business department business content input section G ………………………… Business Value Evaluation Department H ………………………… Business investment decision department 1 ……………………………… NOPAT / Invested capital calculation processing 2 ………………………… Regression analysis processing 3 ………………………… Investment decision department

   ─────────────────────────────────────────────────── ─── Continued front page    (72) Inventor Hiroshi Sakui             4-6 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo             Hitachi Research Institute, Ltd. (72) Inventor Kazuo Abe             4-6 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo             Within Hitachi, Ltd.

Claims (28)

[Claims] 1. A business to be invested based on a process of obtaining a forecast error of operating profit based on past financial data, a process of inputting financial data of a new business plan, and the forecast error and the financial data of the new business plan. The process of obtaining the evaluation value of
A management index processing system that performs processing related to investment judgment based on the evaluation value of the investment target business. 2. A financial database in which financial data of an existing company is accumulated, operating profit calculation processing is performed based on this financial database, and sales for the next period are performed using regression analysis based on this operating profit. Perform the process of predicting profit, perform the process of entering the financial data of the new business plan,
Performing the process of calculating the forecast error δ from the forecast operating profit and actual operating profit in the previous period, classifying the forecast error δ by the risk of the characteristic factor, constructing a histogram database of this forecast error δ, and excluding tax Calculate the forecast value of operating profit after, based on the error histogram, apply the error histogram around the forecast value of operating profit after tax to calculate the distribution of operating profit after tax, capital It is characterized by performing the process of calculating the economic profit distribution by subtracting the cost and calculating the risk-adjusted rate of return, and performing the investment decision by evaluating the value of the investment target company with a certain standard. Management index processing system. 3. A process of calculating an operating income prediction error based on past financial data of a plurality of business divisions of a company, a process of inputting financial data of a specific business division of a company, and the prediction error. A management index processing system that performs a process of calculating an evaluation value of a specific business unit in the previous period from financial data of the specific business unit, and a process of investment judgment based on the evaluation value of the specific business unit. 4. A financial database that accumulates financial data of all business units of an existing company is constructed, the operating profit after tax is calculated based on this financial database, and the operating profit database after tax is calculated based on this operating profit database. Process to predict operating profit after tax using regression analysis, and process to input financial data of a specific division within the company.
The prediction error δ is calculated, and the prediction error δ is classified by the risk of the characteristic factor.
The distribution of operating profit after tax is calculated by constructing a histogram database of, calculating the forecast value of operating profit after tax, and applying an error histogram centered on the forecast value of operating profit after tax based on the error histogram. To calculate the economic profit distribution by subtracting the cost of capital to calculate the risk-adjusted rate of return, evaluate the business value of a specific business unit within the company with a certain standard, and A management index processing system characterized by performing processing to make investment decisions. 5. In the management index processing system, the capital density of a new business is prepared by using a probability density curve of after-tax operating profit and a default rate corresponding to the rating of the company that is the main investor. A method of calculating the weighted average capital cost by performing the process of calculating the economic capital, which indicates whether it is necessary to do so, and weighting the capital cost and the borrowing interest rate using the economic capital. 6. An operation for obtaining an appropriate capital structure (debt / capital ratio) of the invested capital based on a probability distribution of profit with respect to the invested capital (investment amount), the desired capital structure, debt cost and shareholder's equity A management index processing system characterized in that a computer calculates a cost of capital rate based on cost, and a calculation of market-efficient added value from the cost of capital rate based on business profit after tax. 7. An operation for obtaining a desired capital structure (debt / capital ratio) from a credit rating, a bankruptcy probability, or a debt cost based on a probability distribution of profit with respect to invested capital (investment amount), and the desired capital structure. The calculation of the cost of capital based on the cost of debt and the cost of shareholders' equity, the calculation of the market-effective added value from the cost of capital based on the business profit after tax, and the degree of social contribution of the business. A management index process characterized by performing a calculation to obtain a social and environmental added value by financial evaluation, and a calculation to obtain a future creative value from the market efficient added value and the social and environmental added value by a computer. system. 8. Entering a planned value of the ratio of profit amount to the invested amount (ROI) in the business plan, and the distribution based on the past performance of the ROI of the company or other companies, and the predicted value or the budget value of the ROI. The ROI based on either or both of the distribution based on the actual deviation of actual values and
The management index processing system is characterized by performing a calculation of a probability distribution of the planned value of, a calculation of a function that approximates the probability distribution with a normal distribution, and the like by a computer. 9. The ratio of profit amount to the invested amount (R
7. The management index processing system according to claim 6, wherein a probability distribution function such as a probability distribution for each ROI or a normal distribution approximated to the ROI) is displayed on a distribution chart with OI) as an axis. . 10. A target credit rating on a probability distribution function distribution diagram such as a probability distribution for each ROI, or a normal distribution approximating the ROI, with the ratio of the amount of profit (ROI) to the invested amount as an axis. 10. The management index processing system according to claim 9, wherein a cumulative probability that matches the bankruptcy probability based on the debt cost is displayed. 11. A probability distribution for each profit amount with a profit amount as an axis, or a function obtained by approximating it with a normal distribution or the like,
7. The management index processing system according to claim 6, wherein the management index processing system is displayed in a distribution chart. 12. The amount of debt / capital that should be displayed on a probability distribution for each amount of profit with a profit amount as an axis or on a distribution chart of a function that approximates it with a normal distribution or the like. The management index processing system according to claim 11, which is characterized in that. 13. A preset credit rating, a preset bankruptcy probability, or a preset liability, based on a preset probability distribution of a ratio of a profit amount to an invested amount (ROI). Calculation of the desired capital structure (debt / capital ratio) from the cost, weighted average of the desired capital structure, preset debt cost and preset equity cost, and capital cost ratio Based on the business profit after tax calculated by the accounting process and the calculation of the market-efficient added value from the capital cost ratio, and the social contribution of the business is evaluated monetarily to The calculation of the added value and the calculation of the future creative value from the market-efficient added value and the social and environmental added value are performed by a computer. Index processing system. 14. The stock price risk is calculated from the debt cost calculation processing that calculates the debt cost based on the bankruptcy probability obtained by setting the target credit rating, and the stock price risk from the comprehensive stock price index of the market and the stock price return rate. It is based on the bankruptcy probability in the calculation process of shareholders 'equity cost that calculates the cost of shareholders' equity from the rate of return commensurate with stock price risk and the probability frequency curve of the ratio of profit amount to the amount invested Calculation process of the desired capital structure for calculating the desired capital structure (debt / capital ratio), desired capital structure calculated in the calculation process of the desired capital structure, and debt cost calculated in the calculation process of the debt cost And the cost of shareholders 'equity calculated in the calculation of the cost of shareholders' equity, the weighted average is calculated to calculate the cost of capital rate. The capital cost rate calculation processing to be performed, the market efficient value added calculation processing to calculate the market efficient value added value from the capital cost rate based on the business profit after tax calculated by the accounting processing, and the direct price or Social-environmental value-added calculation processing that calculates the social-environmental value-added by financially evaluating the social contribution of the business that does not reflect costs, and market efficiency calculated in the market-efficient value-added calculation processing Future where the original evaluation value of the business is calculated by multiplying the social and environmental added value calculated in the calculation processing of the above-mentioned social and environmental added value by the contribution rate to the added value in the whole business A management index processing system characterized by: 15. A first means for performing a target credit rating setting calculation, and a second means for calculating a bankruptcy probability based on the target credit rating calculated and set by the first means. A third means for calculating a debt cost based on the bankruptcy probability calculated by the second means, a fourth means for calculating a stock price risk based on a change in stock price, and a fourth means A fifth means for calculating the cost of equity capital based on the calculated stock price risk, and a sixth means for calculating a probability frequency curve based on the occurrence frequency of each ratio of the profit amount to the invested amount
Means, a probability frequency curve calculated by the sixth means, and a bankruptcy probability calculated by the second means, a seventh means for calculating a desired capital structure, and the seventh means. Capital cost by weighted averaging the debt cost calculated by the third means and the equity cost calculated by the fifth means based on the desired capital structure calculated by the means An eighth means for calculating a rate, and a market-efficient value-added calculation from the capital cost rate calculated by the eighth means based on the business profit after tax calculated by the accounting processing. 9 means and the social contribution of the business that is not reflected in the direct price or cost are evaluated financially and the social and environmental value added is calculated.
And the socio-environmental added value calculated by the tenth means are multiplied by the contribution rate to the added value in the whole business, and the market efficient addition calculated by the ninth means is obtained. A management index processing system comprising: an eleventh means for performing an operation of adding to the value to obtain a value for future creation. 16. The arithmetic processing for obtaining the market-efficient added value, the social-environmental added value, and the future creative value,
The management index processing system according to claim 6, wherein the management index processing system is performed for a plurality of business units in a company. 17. The contribution ratio of the socio-environmental added value to the added value in the whole business is the regression analysis from the relationship between the past socio-environmental added value and the market-efficient added value / shareholder value, and a questionnaire. 8. The management index processing system according to claim 7, wherein the management index processing system is set by the management in consideration of two degrees of interest in the social and environmental added value of the shareholders, which are obtained by surveys and the like. 18. A process of creating a database of distribution of business profit based on past financial data, a process of inputting financial data of a future business plan, and an investment target from the database and the financial data of the business plan. A management index processing system that performs processing for obtaining an evaluation value of a business and processing for investment judgment based on the evaluation value of the investment target business. 19. A business having a financial database in which financial data of an existing company is accumulated, calculating business profit based on the financial database, and performing regression analysis based on the business profit in the next period of business. The profit forecast process is performed, the forecast error is calculated from the business profit forecast in the previous period and the actual business profit, the existing company group is classified by the characteristic factor, and the financial data of the new business plan is calculated. Perform the input process, calculate the distribution of business profit after tax based on the database of companies with the same characteristic factors, calculate the desired capital structure from the distribution of the previous period, and calculate the capital cost ratio Market capital efficiency is calculated by subtracting the tax and the invested capital cost of the previous period from the projected business profit of the previous period. Process to calculate the static added value,
A management index processing system that evaluates the value of an investment target company according to a certain standard and performs processing to make an investment decision. 20. A process of calculating a prediction error of business profit based on past financial data of a plurality of business divisions of a company, a process of inputting financial data of a specific business division of a company, and the prediction error. A management index processing system that performs a process of calculating an evaluation value of a specific business unit in the previous period from financial data of the specific business unit, and a process of investment judgment based on the evaluation value of the specific business unit. 21. A financial database that stores financial data of all business units of an existing company is constructed, business profit calculation processing is performed based on this financial database, and regression analysis is used based on this business profit database. Process to predict business profit, process to input financial data of a specific business unit in the company, process to calculate prediction error, process to classify database by characteristic factor, business profit plan When a value is entered, the process of calculating the probability distribution of business profit is performed based on the database, and RO
The process of determining the desired capital structure from the distribution of I, calculating the capital cost rate, subtracting the invested capital cost, and evaluating the business value of a specific business unit within the company with a certain standard to make a business investment decision Management index processing system characterized by performing. 22. In the management index processing system,
The invested capital required by a new business should be virtually assumed by using the probability distribution of business profits and the bankruptcy probability corresponding to the credit rating, which is the basis of the cost of shareholders' equity and the cost of debt of the company that invests. A method of calculating the cost of capital ratio by weighted average by performing a process of dividing into debt and capital and weighting the cost of equity capital and the cost of debt using the ratio of the debt and capital that should be concerned. 23. A calculation for obtaining a market-efficient added value, a calculation for discounting the market-effective added value by a capital cost to obtain a present value, and a calculation for accumulating the present values to obtain a cumulative present value. A management index processing system characterized by being performed by a computer. 24. A system for processing a management index by using a computer; a file for storing information on credit rating and bankruptcy probability, a file for storing information on stock price, and information on ratio of ROI to invested capital. Related to the information stored in the file, the file storing information about tax-excluded profit, the input section for inputting the information stored in these files or the instruction for inputting those information. Based on the probability distribution of the profit to the invested capital (investment amount), the operation to obtain the desired capital structure (debt / capital ratio) of the invested capital, Based on the calculation of the capital cost rate based on the business profit after tax, the market efficient added value is calculated from the capital cost rate. That a processing unit for performing computation, be one that outputs a result processed by the processing unit, management indicators processing system and an output portion having at least a display unit. 25. A file for storing information on social and environmental added value is further provided, wherein the processing unit further monetarily evaluates the social contribution of the business to obtain a social and environmental added value, and the market. 25. The management index processing system according to claim 24, which has a function of performing a calculation for a future creation value from the efficient added value and the social and environmental added value. 26. The output section displays a probability density function such as a probability distribution for each ROI or a normal distribution which approximates the probability distribution for each ROI on a distribution chart, with a ratio of a profit amount to an invested amount (ROI) as an axis. The management index processing system according to claim 24. 27. The management index process according to claim 24, wherein the output unit displays a probability distribution for each profit amount, or a function obtained by approximating the probability distribution with respect to each profit amount in a distribution chart, with the profit amount as an axis. system. 28. The output unit displays the amount of debt / capital that should be on a profit distribution as an axis, on a probability distribution for each profit amount, or on a distribution diagram of a function obtained by approximating it with a normal distribution or the like. The management index processing system according to claim 24.